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══════════════════【立報】═══════════════════ |
| 教 育 專 題 深 入 報 導《2004-05-07》 |
| 本期內容 | |
| ◎ 溫氏效應 亞洲結霜 | |
| ◎ 台灣立報資料室徵教育資料庫建置人員 | |
| 溫氏效應 亞洲結霜 | |
| 賴明芝編譯 | |
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中國降溫 各國股市大跌 路透社引述中國總理溫家寶專訪指出，鑑於通貨膨脹加速以及鋼鐵、水泥等產業投資過熱的隱憂，中國政府將採取「強有力」措施為經濟降溫；另外，對於人民幣的僵硬作法，溫家寶說，也會避免貿然改變人民幣緊盯美元匯制，以免威脅區域及全球金融市場穩定。 溫家寶表示，中國對於是否將人民幣改採盯住一籃子貨幣抱持開放態度，這是中國官員一直在評估的一項方案。 在溫家寶上週四宣示政府將宏觀調控中國經濟，為經濟過熱降溫的做法後，世界各國，特別是亞洲地區的國家，莫不嚴陣以待。香港、新加坡、泰國和澳大利亞股市分別下跌了1.2至1.5％。 新加坡股市前天收在5個星期以來的低點，分析員表示，新加坡市場不但擔心中國經濟降溫，也擔心SARS蔓延的可能性，從而引發運輸和商品貿易類股的下跌情況也令人擔憂。 事實上，中國經濟過熱，可能引發泡沫化危機的討論，一直都存在。相關討論在最近甚至有更為激烈的反應，特別是溫家寶的降溫措施發表之後。英國最新一期的《經濟學人》雜誌指出，中國經濟已有過熱的憂慮，而且投資效益過低、產能過剩，加上龐大的失業人口與銀行呆帳等問題。在這種情況下，如果經濟成長腳步不慢下來，中國政府很快會淹沒在龐大的債務中。 《經濟學人》在「中國市場調查：面具之後」一文強調，中國最大的隱憂，是驚人的投資浪費。而在中國投資的跨國企業，常無法獲得適當的回饋或是實質的利潤，一部分是導因於他們自身的錯誤，因為他們高估了中國市場，卻低估了競爭情況。1980至1990年代，2至3美元的投資，可以產生1美元的附加成長。但現在卻需要4美元以上的投資，才能產生1美元的附加成長。這種投資效益實在沒效率，《經濟學人》認為，連鄰近條件不佳的印度，也不會發生這種狀況。 基本上，來自中國各級官員，有關過度投資、經濟過熱、通貨膨脹等類似警告不絕於耳。中國領導層擔心，一些行業裡的投資過熱現象，可能會扭轉長期以來物價不斷走低的趨勢，引發通貨膨脹的危險。美國《華盛頓郵報》甚至認為，中國的經濟奇蹟已經持續多年，人們習慣了豔陽高照的好天氣，看不到頭頂烏雲正在聚集。文章指出，中國經濟中出現的問題是對全球經濟的嚴重挑戰，因為，中國是正在推動日本和其他亞洲國家經濟復甦的經濟引擎。 現在中國領導高層頭大得很，究竟應該要採取多少經濟降溫的措施，才能防止經濟過熱的局面，又能維持經濟良性成長的發展，實在是個嚴苛的考驗。 美國、日本都相繼出現經濟泡沫化了，未來的中國，將會步上他們的後塵嗎？ Singapore shares eased on Monday as investors fretted about a cooling Chinese economy and the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike, while banks retreated from strong gains posted at the end of last week. "External risk factors have now come back into play. These are basically the hike in global interest rates and, more importantly, the extent of tightening in China, which we can't figure out at the moment," said Kevin Scully, managing director at independent research firm Netresearch-Asia. The key Straits Times index finished 0.15 percent, or 2.80 points, down at 1,839.23. It had rallied from five-week lows to close 1.7 percent up on Friday, after strong results from DBS Group, the city state's largest bank. Losers thrashed gainers 240 to 88 as volume shrank to 473 million shares from 799 million on Friday. DBS, which soared 5.2 percent on Friday after the release of the quarterly results, shed 0.7 percent to S$14.20. The bank had posted an 80 percent jump in profit to S$488 million ($287 million) for the three months to March 31, boosted by a strong performance in treasury trading activities. Deutsche Bank raised DBS to a buy after the results. United Overseas Bank, which reports results on Tuesday, dropped 1.5 percent to S$13.50. OCBC Bank, which rose 3.4 percent on Friday ahead of its results, closed unchanged at S$12.10. Its profits had jumped 60.5 percent to S$255.8 million in the quarter ended March on higher insurance earnings and lower provisions for bad loans. "The market had already discounted the results on Friday," said Scully. The three banks have a weighting of about 37 percent in the STI index. Informatics Holdings sank 62 percent to 29 Singapore cents as it resumed trading after being suspended for more than two weeks, disappointing investors with a yearly loss. The computer education firm topped volumes with 108 million shares traded. Informatics, which said earlier it had overstated past earnings, unveiled a net loss of S$20.62 million for the year ended March 31. "That's a big disappointment," said Chan Tuck Sing, director at brokerage UOB Kay Hian Pte Ltd. But property firm City Developments rose 3.3 percent to S$6.30. Chan said some investors bought the stock before it went ex-dividend and ex-entitlement to preference shares on Tuesday. Singapore Telecommunications rose 1.3 percent to S$2.37 and Scully of Netresearch-Asia said the move was in anticipation of good quarterly results from the firm on May 6. "They are expected to be quite good, even without the exceptional gains from Belgacom," he said. SingTel has said it expects to net a gain of S$900 million to S$950 million from the sale of its stake in Belgian telecoms operator Belgacom. ($1=1.70 Singapore Dollar). 綠色奧運熱過頭 中國的經濟發展為人所詬病的是，它並非建立在制度上，而是採人治的觀念進行！偏偏神秘的中國人，是不會讓你知道他們的腦袋在想些什麼！目前外界擔憂中國經濟過熱終將引爆泡沫化危機的說法，可說是甚囂塵上，連中國領導高層都開始試圖抑制經濟發展腳步。與此同時，卻又大打2008年北京申辦奧運，將帶來無窮商機的話題。北京當局對於經濟政策的矛盾態度，由此可見一斑。 為了舉辦2008年奧運，北京政府可說是卯足了勁。在今年雅典奧運即將登場，卻依舊漏洞連連之際，北京政府則是相當自豪地說，所有的準備工程將於2006年以前竣工。 據了解，為貫徹「綠色奧運」的口號，北京將斥資340億美元，進行一套為期數年的基礎建設與環境改造工程，希望屆時能以亮麗的姿態展現。這麼大的手筆，自然吸引不少外資投入競標，希望能包下部分工程，分得這股商機所帶來的利潤。 北京市市長王岐山表示，為了奧運的籌備和舉行，將生產大量的投資需求、消費需求、產業需求、產品與服務需求。到2008年以前，北京的固定資產投資將擴大至1千5百億人民幣。而消費市場總量也將超過這個數目，光舉辦奧運所新增的社會消費需求總額就有1千億人民幣之多。 2000年雪梨奧運的資深籌辦經理邱吉斯（David Churches）表示：「我發現，我在北京的工作經驗，要比在雅典的工作經驗，更像在雪梨工作時的經驗。」中國政府吸引外商的宣傳手法，經常採取「量身訂做」的形象包裝，似乎這是個極為友善的投資環境。而這也正是英國最新一期的《經濟學人》所擔憂的，投資人完全只顧眼前的亮麗風光，卻無視頭頂烏雲增多的危機。 2008年北京奧運申辦完畢，還有世界博覽會與亞運接踵而至。中國市場有沒有商機？這個答案是肯定的。但是，會不會有經濟過熱，導致泡沫化危機的可能？這也是有的。目前看來，中國的鋼鐵、水泥和一些化工原料的消耗占全球的比例都超出平常，這說明中國確實在大規模地建設。但是，既然投資報酬率低於銀行利率，因此將來償還銀行貸款就是個大問題，只要未來銀行的壞帳增加，就會產生金融危機。 投資都是有其風險黑暗面的，但看著舉辦奧運等風光場面，就一股腦的投資中國，也是相當令人憂心的。奇怪的是，正當世界各大強國莫不擔憂中國政府在經濟降溫與提高經濟成長之間，能否拿捏得恰如其份之際，隔著海峽的扁政府高層，卻一片沉寂，好像沒事一般。 The wisecrack in Beijing, with fewer than 100 days before the Olympics in Athens, is that China's capital is better prepared for the Games than Greece's. The birthplace of the Olympiad is scrambling to finish arenas and transport links in time for this August's Games. The hosts of the 2008 Summer Olympics, meanwhile, are breaking ground on venues at a record pace. "We're very sure that, as it has been promised by BOCOG (Beijing Organizing Committee of the Olympic Games), the works will be finished by the end of 2006, which is an absolute record," Hein Verbruggen, chairman of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) coordination commission for 2008, said during an inspection tour in February. China's progress is no surprise. The central government has thrown all its weight behind the Games, a badge of legitimacy to the ruling Communist Party and a yardstick by which the world will judge three decades of reform. The Olympics have been a convenient boost to the state-backed infrastructure and real estate drive, the main engine keeping the economy roaring and people employed. The spectacle is the justification for a Herculean urban overhaul. Beijing is building ring roads and rail lines to try to untangle traffic snarls, evicting factories to disperse a foul haze and razing historic but derelict residential blocks to make room for manicured greens and modern facades. "I find working in Beijing much more similar to our experience in Sydney than my time in Athens," said David Churches, formerly senior manager of the organizing body of the 2000 Sydney Games. He now directs the Sydney-Beijing Olympic Secretariat, formed by the Australian government to help Australian firms secure 2008 tenders and to advise BOCOG. "I find there's a great enthusiasm and commitment from the people I'm working with." BIRD'S NEST Much-needed roads remained unbuilt in Athens due to a leadership void, Churches said. In Beijing, the strength to get things built came from the top as the city's most powerful cadres were also captains of BOCOG. Some 10 km north of the Forbidden City lies a neatly partitioned field of green mesh, earthen mounds and newly dug cavities -- the future Olympic Park. Drill rigs excavate a hole for the Bird's Nest, the $400-million Olympic Stadium by Swiss designers Jacques Herzog and Pierre de Meuron. "Right now, we have more than 3,000 workers," bragged a security guard at the entrance. "Maybe one day we'll reach 10,000, or more." By 2008, Beijing will have laid 148.5 new km of light rail and subway track, nearly triple the amount it had in 2001 when it won the Games bid, and 718 km of new expressway, according to BOCOG's Web Site. It will have relocated 200 polluting enterprises and treated more than 90 percent of sewage in its noxious canals. The city will be encrusted with new architectural gems, such as a $2-billion airport addition by Donald Foster, a $600-million state television headquarters by Rem Koolhaas and the $120-million Olympic swimming center, dubbed the Water Cube. By 2008, Beijing plans to have spent $37 billion for the Games, including $2 billion on venues, $2 billion in operating costs, $24.2 million on infrastructure and $7 billion on environmental clean-up. Public bids could defray about half of the total, though there are signs the city is running a bloated budget: in a cost-cutting move, BOCOG announced last month it had nearly halved the tonnage of steel to be used on the Bird's Nest. TRAFFIC CONTROL "If we have a concern, we think it's perhaps that there is still not sufficient understanding of the operational challenge at Games time," said Churches. Take traffic control, for example. Beijing's ill-planned intersections can degenerate quickly into tangles of bicycles, pedestrians and swerving cars. Police fail to enforce rules and drivers flout them at will. Beijing's roads are struggling to accommodate 2.5 million vehicles, with explosive private car sales adding 250,000 more each year. "Those two million-plus cars use the roads as much as eight million cars would abroad," said Song Jingyan, a professor of automation at the Tsinghua University School of Information Technology. "Elsewhere, they go to work and stop...In China, the cars are on the road all day." The city faces an underlying challenge, said Churches: how to integrate a government bureaucracy that is sprawling, highly compartmentalized and many-tiered. "By this time (in Sydney), we had people from the transport authorities and the security authorities and various other government organizations sitting in one building together on a day-to-day basis working with the organizing committee. "And that isn't happening at this time, that I can see." |
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