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══════════════════【立報】═══════════════════ |
| 教 育 專 題 深 入 報 導《2004-07-09》 |
| 本期內容 | |
| ◎ 2004國際專題：氣候變遷，明天何在？ | |
| ◎ 氣候變遷，明天何在？溫室效應釀成災禍 | |
| 2004國際專題：氣候變遷，明天何在？ | |
| 策劃、編譯■成怡夏 | |
|
溫室效應釀成災禍 電影《明天過後》的末日預言並非危言聳聽，全球氣候變遷已在各地釀成災禍。近來台灣的七二水災、中國大陸的熱浪，種種詭譎難測的天候變化，似乎都再次提醒還不夠警覺的人類這項警訊。而身為全世界溫室效應最大污染源國家的美國，卻在2001年退出京都議定書的約束，顯然低估了溫室效應將產生的影響。 環境科學家預測，海平面在過去一個世紀中已上昇了9公分，在下個世紀可能會上昇9到88公分。隨著全球暖化，格陵蘭和南極西區的冰層都變得相當脆弱，如果這些冰層全部都融化了，格陵蘭的冰層將讓全球海平面升高50公分，南極西區冰層則會讓全球海平面升高34公分。屆時，佛羅里達州、孟加拉和曼哈頓島的大部分地區都會泡在水裡。 他們也指出，未來一百年，除非人類立即行動，二氧化碳濃度將會升高到8百至1千ppm，上回二氧化碳濃度這麼高的時候，是在5,500萬到3,600萬年前地球的始新世第三紀。到時，棕櫚樹會出現在懷俄明州，鱷魚會出現在北極，南極洲則會有松樹林，海平面至少比現在高出3百呎。 據聯合國跨政府氣候變遷研究小組的報告指出，未來氣候暖化的傷害將非常嚴重，土地將更為乾燥、洪水次數增加、颱風等熱帶氣旋的威力增強，加上氣候改變促進害蟲繁殖，農作物收成下降。颱風、乾旱、洪水等極端氣候型態機率增加且增強，以及海平面上升，可能迫使沿海低地數千萬人民不得不離開家園，而且這些地區的土地可能因為鹽化而無法耕種。另外媒介疾病將更為猖獗，氣溫上升也將危及人類健康。氣候改變也會提高人類對能源的需求，並破壞觀光地的景觀。 Climate change experts said on Tuesday they are frustrated the U.S. government and the public are not taking the risk of global warming seriously. They said even as sea levels rise and crop yields fall, officials argue over whether climate change is real and Americans continue to drive fuel-guzzling SUVs. "There is going to be large change," said atmospheric scientist David Battisti of the University of Washington in Seattle. "The risks are very large." Climate experts around the world agree one first step to battling the buildup of polluting gases that is warming the Earth is an agreement called the Kyoto Protocol, a 1997 pact aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions. More than 120 nations have ratified the pact or acceded to it. President Bush pulled out in 2001, arguing Kyoto was too expensive and unfairly excluded developing nations. The United States is the world's biggest polluter, producing 36 percent of warming emissions. Bush's advisers also cite doubts about models that predict the course of global warming. The climate said sea levels have risen 4 inches (9 cm) already over the past century and could rise between 4 and 40 inches (9 to 88 cm) more in the next century. Both the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets are "highly vulnerable" to global warming, Oppenheimer said. If completely melted, the Greenland ice sheet would add 25 feet to overall sea level and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise it by 16 feet. This would be enough to swamp most of Florida, Bangladesh and Manhattan, he said. "The sea level rise over the past century appears greater than what the model says it should be," Oppenheimer said. "The ice sheets may be contributing more than the models predict." 澳洲連續一百年乾旱 做為全世界最乾旱的一洲，以農業為經濟命脈的澳洲也面臨氣候變遷的衝擊。澳洲已持續一百年的乾旱，自1910年以來溫度已上升攝氏0.7度，雖僅僅0.7度的改變，都足以威脅到敏感的澳洲大地生態，愈來愈多因為乾旱和叢林火災引起經濟與農業的損失，極端的天候造成家庭與企業的傷害，更有因昆蟲孳生造成的各種疾病出現。 溫室效應正在發生，為了維持人類的生活方式，必須下定決心進行管制，然而做為全世界紫外線放射率最高的國家之一，澳洲卻拒絕簽訂旨在降低並管制帶來溫室效應之廢氣的京都議定書。另一方面，能源資源做為澳洲最大的財富來源，上個月澳洲政府又發布一項高達數十億元的能源配套政策，其中一項就是保護當地珍貴的化石燃料能源。 有識者呼籲澳洲政府，2050年前要降低廢氣排量至目前的6成，並在2007年前，制定對私人企業排放廢氣的規定，才能有效對付氣候變遷。 Australia's easy-going beach lifestyle could be at risk if it fails to take immediate steps to significantly reduce greenhouse gases which feed global warming, scientists and environmental groups said on Monday. Australia, already in the grip of a 100-year drought, must slash fossil fuel emissions or face huge agricultural and economic losses, said a report by the World Wildlife Fund and the Insurance Australia Group. "Our way of life is at risk because Australia is vulnerable to climate change," said the report "Climate Change, Solutions for Australia" released on Monday. "Everyday things we take for granted, like washing the car, putting petrol in it, and going to the beach won't be so readily available in a future Australia dealing with climate change," the report said. Agriculture was a cornerstone of the Australian economy and vulnerable to global warming as Australia was one of the driest continents on earth, it said. The world was already locked into a one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in global temperature, the report said, adding that there was only a five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) difference between modern climates and the Ice Age. It said Australia had warmed 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1910. The report said that a rise of even a few degrees in temperature would see increases in agricultural and economic losses in Australia from droughts and bushfires, more damage to homes and businesses caused by extreme weather and new threats to the health of Australians via insect-borne diseases. "We must recognise that global warming is happening, take control and make decisions that protect our way of life," the report said. "The heat-trapping gases we add to the atmosphere now will still be having a warming effect late this century." The report called on Australia to reduce greenhouse gases by 60 percent by 2050 to "avoid a high level of climate-change damage" and implement an emissions trading scheme for private industry by 2007 to help businesses meet reduction targets. Australia, which has one of the highest per capita emissions rates worldwide, has refused to ratify the Kyoto treaty that aims to cut the emission of greenhouse gases. Last month the Australian government issued a multibillion-dollar energy package which protected the country's valuable fossil fuel energy sector. Energy resources form a major source of Australia's wealth, with energy exports worth over A$24 billion ($17 billion) a year and the sector employing 120,000 people. 阿拉斯加的苦難命運 全球持續暖化的趨勢，在極地表現的特別戲劇化。科學家表示，在阿拉斯加、西伯利亞和加拿大等地，平均溫度每10年上升攝氏一度，高於全球平均上升的攝氏0.6度。然而美國政府卻只是把這樣的情勢當成一般天災人禍處理。 阿拉斯加的213個當地村落中，有184個村落遇到洪水氾濫和侵蝕的問題，其中有20個問題相當嚴重。暴風雨撕裂過去受到永久凍層與北極浮冰保護的海灘，建築物倒塌掉入海裡，許多人不惜耗費鉅資搬離。小機場的跑道浸在水裡，過去用來儲存食物的冰窖也灌滿了水。 當地居民表示，北極海的冰層和海岸線都變得較為脆弱，他們現在彷彿置身十字路口，是要留下來與大海奮戰？或是投降離開？這個問題有兩解決辦法，一個是擴展海岸堤防，一個則是舉村遷移，不過這可要花掉上億元。 A warming climate is bringing expensive and potentially dangerous erosion and floods to Native Alaskan villages, representatives of those communities told federal officials this week. Storms tear off chunks of beach once shielded by permafrost or Arctic pack ice. Buildings are in danger of toppling into the sea, and many have already been moved, at great expense. Airstrips are swamped and ice cellars that once stored food in the permafrost are filling with water, residents say. "As the calming hand of the ice on the Arctic Ocean grows more fragile, so does our coastline," Barrow Mayor Edith Vorderstrasse told members of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee during a two-day field hearing in Anchorage. "We are at a crossroads. Is it practical to stand and fight our mother ocean? Or do we surrender and move?" Fixing the problems by expanding seawalls or relocating entire towns could cost hundreds of millions of dollars for each village, according to General Accounting Office estimates presented at the hearing. Of the 213 Native Alaskan villages, 184 face flooding and erosion problems, with very serious problems in about 20, the GAO says. Tough rules for securing federal aid, requiring local matching funds and cost-benefit analyzes, leave many villages out in the cold, local officials say. For residents of Shishmaref, a coastal village of 600 with severe erosion problems, abandoning their ancestral homeland with its traditional food supply "would have a devastating impact on how we exist and who we are," said Luci Eningowuk, chairman of the Shishmaref Erosion and Relocation Coalition. Residents have already moved 18 homes and two National Guard buildings. Two years ago they voted to move the entire town inland but have not yet secured the money to relocate. Vorderstrasse, whose town of 4,400 is the northernmost community in the United States, has no doubt that global warming is behind the erosion, which disrupts whaling and goose hunting. "We've had rain in January. We had a real early spring in April," she said. "Our weather pattern is really different. It's not consistent like it used to be." The earth's warming trend, which most scientists say is accelerated by the trapping of pollutants in the atmosphere, is more dramatic at polar latitudes. Scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks say air temperatures in Alaska, Siberia and Canada have risen 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, compared to the global average of 0.6 degree Celsius (1.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per century. "Whether it's natural or global climate change, our state is having an impact greater than any other part of the United States," Stevens said. But a colleague, Senator Conrad Burns, rejects the idea that pollution-induced global warming is to blame for the erosion in rural Alaska. "I haven't bought off on global warming yet," the Montana Republican said. "I don't think it's man-made. The earth is in constant change all the time." Still, he said, federal aid will get to the Native villages. "Congress responds, as a rule, to disasters and catastrophes. They just do it, because we're a compassionate country," he said. |
|
| （回目錄） | |
| 氣候變遷，明天何在？溫室效應釀成災禍 | |
| 策劃、編譯■成怡夏 | |
|
電影《明天過後》的末日預言並非危言聳聽，全球氣候變遷已在各地釀成災禍。近來台灣的七二水災、中國大陸的熱浪，種種詭譎難測的天候變化，似乎都再次提醒還不夠警覺的人類這項警訊。而身為全世界溫室效應最大污染源國家的美國，卻在2001年退出京都議定書的約束，顯然低估了溫室效應將產生的影響。 環境科學家預測，海平面在過去一個世紀中已上昇了9公分，在下個世紀可能會上昇9到88公分。隨著全球暖化，格陵蘭和南極西區的冰層都變得相當脆弱，如果這些冰層全部都融化了，格陵蘭的冰層將讓全球海平面升高50公分，南極西區冰層則會讓全球海平面升高34公分。屆時，佛羅里達州、孟加拉和曼哈頓島的大部分地區都會泡在水裡。 他們也指出，未來一百年，除非人類立即行動，二氧化碳濃度將會升高到8百至1千ppm，上回二氧化碳濃度這麼高的時候，是在5,500萬到3,600萬年前地球的始新世第三紀。到時，棕櫚樹會出現在懷俄明州，鱷魚會出現在北極，南極洲則會有松樹林，海平面至少比現在高出3百呎。 據聯合國跨政府氣候變遷研究小組的報告指出，未來氣候暖化的傷害將非常嚴重，土地將更為乾燥、洪水次數增加、颱風等熱帶氣旋的威力增強，加上氣候改變促進害蟲繁殖，農作物收成下降。颱風、乾旱、洪水等極端氣候型態機率增加且增強，以及海平面上升，可能迫使沿海低地數千萬人民不得不離開家園，而且這些地區的土地可能因為鹽化而無法耕種。另外媒介疾病將更為猖獗，氣溫上升也將危及人類健康。氣候改變也會提高人類對能源的需求，並破壞觀光地的景觀。 Climate change experts said on Tuesday they are frustrated the U.S. government and the public are not taking the risk of global warming seriously. They said even as sea levels rise and crop yields fall, officials argue over whether climate change is real and Americans continue to drive fuel-guzzling SUVs. "There is going to be large change," said atmospheric scientist David Battisti of the University of Washington in Seattle. "The risks are very large." Climate experts around the world agree one first step to battling the buildup of polluting gases that is warming the Earth is an agreement called the Kyoto Protocol, a 1997 pact aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions. More than 120 nations have ratified the pact or acceded to it. President Bush pulled out in 2001, arguing Kyoto was too expensive and unfairly excluded developing nations. The United States is the world's biggest polluter, producing 36 percent of warming emissions. Bush's advisers also cite doubts about models that predict the course of global warming. The climate said sea levels have risen 4 inches (9 cm) already over the past century and could rise between 4 and 40 inches (9 to 88 cm) more in the next century. Both the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets are "highly vulnerable" to global warming, Oppenheimer said. If completely melted, the Greenland ice sheet would add 25 feet to overall sea level and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise it by 16 feet. This would be enough to swamp most of Florida, Bangladesh and Manhattan, he said. "The sea level rise over the past century appears greater than what the model says it should be," Oppenheimer said. "The ice sheets may be contributing more than the models predict." 澳洲連續一百年乾旱 做為全世界最乾旱的一洲，以農業為經濟命脈的澳洲也面臨氣候變遷的衝擊。澳洲已持續一百年的乾旱，自1910年以來溫度已上升攝氏0.7度，雖僅僅0.7度的改變，都足以威脅到敏感的澳洲大地生態，愈來愈多因為乾旱和叢林火災引起經濟與農業的損失，極端的天候造成家庭與企業的傷害，更有因昆蟲孳生造成的各種疾病出現。 溫室效應正在發生，為了維持人類的生活方式，必須下定決心進行管制，然而做為全世界紫外線放射率最高的國家之一，澳洲卻拒絕簽訂旨在降低並管制帶來溫室效應之廢氣的京都議定書。另一方面，能源資源做為澳洲最大的財富來源，上個月澳洲政府又發布一項高達數十億元的能源配套政策，其中一項就是保護當地珍貴的化石燃料能源。 有識者呼籲澳洲政府，2050年前要降低廢氣排量至目前的6成，並在2007年前，制定對私人企業排放廢氣的規定，才能有效對付氣候變遷。 Australia's easy-going beach lifestyle could be at risk if it fails to take immediate steps to significantly reduce greenhouse gases which feed global warming, scientists and environmental groups said on Monday. Australia, already in the grip of a 100-year drought, must slash fossil fuel emissions or face huge agricultural and economic losses, said a report by the World Wildlife Fund and the Insurance Australia Group. "Our way of life is at risk because Australia is vulnerable to climate change," said the report "Climate Change, Solutions for Australia" released on Monday. "Everyday things we take for granted, like washing the car, putting petrol in it, and going to the beach won't be so readily available in a future Australia dealing with climate change," the report said. Agriculture was a cornerstone of the Australian economy and vulnerable to global warming as Australia was one of the driest continents on earth, it said. The world was already locked into a one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in global temperature, the report said, adding that there was only a five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) difference between modern climates and the Ice Age. It said Australia had warmed 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1910. The report said that a rise of even a few degrees in temperature would see increases in agricultural and economic losses in Australia from droughts and bushfires, more damage to homes and businesses caused by extreme weather and new threats to the health of Australians via insect-borne diseases. "We must recognise that global warming is happening, take control and make decisions that protect our way of life," the report said. "The heat-trapping gases we add to the atmosphere now will still be having a warming effect late this century." The report called on Australia to reduce greenhouse gases by 60 percent by 2050 to "avoid a high level of climate-change damage" and implement an emissions trading scheme for private industry by 2007 to help businesses meet reduction targets. Australia, which has one of the highest per capita emissions rates worldwide, has refused to ratify the Kyoto treaty that aims to cut the emission of greenhouse gases. Last month the Australian government issued a multibillion-dollar energy package which protected the country's valuable fossil fuel energy sector. Energy resources form a major source of Australia's wealth, with energy exports worth over A$24 billion ($17 billion) a year and the sector employing 120,000 people. 阿拉斯加的苦難命運 全球持續暖化的趨勢，在極地表現的特別戲劇化。科學家表示，在阿拉斯加、西伯利亞和加拿大等地，平均溫度每10年上升攝氏一度，高於全球平均上升的攝氏0.6度。然而美國政府卻只是把這樣的情勢當成一般天災人禍處理。 阿拉斯加的213個當地村落中，有184個村落遇到洪水氾濫和侵蝕的問題，其中有20個問題相當嚴重。暴風雨撕裂過去受到永久凍層與北極浮冰保護的海灘，建築物倒塌掉入海裡，許多人不惜耗費鉅資搬離。小機場的跑道浸在水裡，過去用來儲存食物的冰窖也灌滿了水。 當地居民表示，北極海的冰層和海岸線都變得較為脆弱，他們現在彷彿置身十字路口，是要留下來與大海奮戰？或是投降離開？這個問題有兩解決辦法，一個是擴展海岸堤防，一個則是舉村遷移，不過這可要花掉上億元。 A warming climate is bringing expensive and potentially dangerous erosion and floods to Native Alaskan villages, representatives of those communities told federal officials this week. Storms tear off chunks of beach once shielded by permafrost or Arctic pack ice. Buildings are in danger of toppling into the sea, and many have already been moved, at great expense. Airstrips are swamped and ice cellars that once stored food in the permafrost are filling with water, residents say. "As the calming hand of the ice on the Arctic Ocean grows more fragile, so does our coastline," Barrow Mayor Edith Vorderstrasse told members of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee during a two-day field hearing in Anchorage. "We are at a crossroads. Is it practical to stand and fight our mother ocean? Or do we surrender and move?" Fixing the problems by expanding seawalls or relocating entire towns could cost hundreds of millions of dollars for each village, according to General Accounting Office estimates presented at the hearing. Of the 213 Native Alaskan villages, 184 face flooding and erosion problems, with very serious problems in about 20, the GAO says. Tough rules for securing federal aid, requiring local matching funds and cost-benefit analyzes, leave many villages out in the cold, local officials say. For residents of Shishmaref, a coastal village of 600 with severe erosion problems, abandoning their ancestral homeland with its traditional food supply "would have a devastating impact on how we exist and who we are," said Luci Eningowuk, chairman of the Shishmaref Erosion and Relocation Coalition. Residents have already moved 18 homes and two National Guard buildings. Two years ago they voted to move the entire town inland but have not yet secured the money to relocate. Vorderstrasse, whose town of 4,400 is the northernmost community in the United States, has no doubt that global warming is behind the erosion, which disrupts whaling and goose hunting. "We've had rain in January. We had a real early spring in April," she said. "Our weather pattern is really different. It's not consistent like it used to be." The earth's warming trend, which most scientists say is accelerated by the trapping of pollutants in the atmosphere, is more dramatic at polar latitudes. Scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks say air temperatures in Alaska, Siberia and Canada have risen 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, compared to the global average of 0.6 degree Celsius (1.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per century. "Whether it's natural or global climate change, our state is having an impact greater than any other part of the United States," Stevens said. But a colleague, Senator Conrad Burns, rejects the idea that pollution-induced global warming is to blame for the erosion in rural Alaska. "I haven't bought off on global warming yet," the Montana Republican said. "I don't think it's man-made. The earth is in constant change all the time." Still, he said, federal aid will get to the Native villages. "Congress responds, as a rule, to disasters and catastrophes. They just do it, because we're a compassionate country," he said. 氣候變化協商過程 聯合國氣候變化綱要公約，於1992年6月巴西里約召開的聯合國環境與發展大會（UNCED）上簽署。之後歷經了3次締約國大會，其中1997年12月在日本京都召開之「氣候變化綱要公約第三次締約國大會」，會中採納具法律約束力的「京都議定書」，規範21世紀初期，先進國家的溫室氣體排放減量目標與時程表。 但由於涉及各國資源重分配的問題，美國布希政府在2001年宣布不履行京都議定書後，之後引發部分國家如，俄羅斯、日本、與澳洲（其排放占比分別為17.8％、8.5％與2.1％）等出現立場動搖的情況至今。 此議定書的目標在於，將溫室氣體的濃度穩定在一個不會危及大氣系統的水平，以確保生態體系有足夠時間適應氣候變遷，且糧食生產不會受到威脅，促使經濟發展轉變為持續性發展型態。若要在21世紀末將二氧化碳濃度穩定在工業革命前的兩倍（550ppmv），則目前全球排放量必須削減一半。 由於京都議定書之制訂限制二氧化碳排放，將直接衝擊各國之能源配比與產業結構，影響各國經濟發展，甚至損及國際競爭力，京都會議後，可以很清楚地發現國際態勢已由過去的東西意識形態對抗，轉變成南北對立，已開發國家與開發中國家之競爭，甚至可稱為富有國家與貧窮國家之戰爭。 不過美國堅持主要開發中國家（如：中國大陸和印度）亦應承擔管制溫室氣體之責任，引起強烈反彈。這些國家認為，工業國家有道德義務，應先從自己減少排放量做起，而不是忙著進行國際間的排放交易，將限制加諸在開發中國家。以致廢氣排放量佔全球36％的美國至今以此為由，仍未簽署京都議定書，也在溫室氣體排放上未有任何進展。 |
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