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══════════════════【立報】═══════════════════ |
| 教 育 專 題 深 入 報 導《2004-10-29》 |
| 本期內容 | |
| ◎ 國際專題：預知地震，目前辦不到 | |
| ◎ 台灣立報徵文啟事 | |
| 國際專題：預知地震，目前辦不到 | |
| 策劃、編譯■成怡夏 | |
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地震真的能夠預知嗎？人類有沒有可能具有這種能力？台北市有名男子宣稱，自己耳鳴、耳朵不斷跳動時，3天內就會發生地震，10幾年來，他準確預測了世界各地的多次大地震。另外，也有星象專家預言，地心引力受到日蝕和月蝕影響，10月中旬會發生地震，果然事後驗證；至於下一個地震什麼時候會發生？星象專家大膽預測是10月28日，這種預測，地震專家認為沒有科學根據，氣象局人員表示，只能算是巧合。 日本預測地震的研究單位相當多，各主要大學、氣象研究組織或個人，都很努力想突破預測地震的難關，但至今還沒有決定性的方法。日本地震預知研究中心的專家指出，日本與台灣是地震頻繁的國家，任何時間發生地震都不足為奇，以目前的技術，預測地震的書籍或預言只能做為參考性的話題，對於地震發生的警覺可能有幫助，但不能因此而恐慌。萬一證明地震預測是錯誤的，不但會對當地居民造成驚懼，也會打擊地震學者的信譽。 以下是《大地怒吼》一書中，列舉過去幾次地震學者提出的地震預言。可以看出為了避免「狼來了」的情況一再出現，在維持高度警戒過後，恐怕出現警戒鬆弛的現象，因此地震學者在觀察到異常的地震訊號時，大多採取謹慎和保留的態度。其中，1923年關東大地震，之前日本地震學者稻村就有提出預測，不過他並不能準確地震發生的時間，加上其他地震學者對他預測所採取的科學方法缺乏信心，因此，並沒有由政府出面督促民眾採取任何行動。 至於中國方面，恐怕因為是共產國家，比較不擔心如果預測結果不準，勞民傷財下可能產生的民怨，因此中國國家地震局在1975年發現多年來的海域地震活動頻仍，卻在當年2月4日近午時，所有的地震活動都突如其來停止，推測應為大地震的前兆，在不怕出錯、寧可信其有的態度下，地震局在下午2時發佈警告──5個小時後，大地震發生，當地90％的房屋倒塌，而居民卻因事前的警報在戶外紮營，逃過一劫。 然而，1976年8月，就在唐山大地震後一個月，大陸官方向廣東省居民發佈地震警告，使得居民在帳蓬裡睡了2個月，連鄰近的香港居民也惴惴不安，然而卻什麼事也沒發生。 或許在目前地震預測技術尚未成熟到可以讓人完全信服下，很多星座專家、算命師、或是有異能的人士，各自從自己的經驗和觀測中發出警語，這些警語雖未獲得地震專家的証實，但也足以造成人心惴惴不安，甚至因為日常生活仍要維持下去，產生「狼來了」的效應。也許，根本的防震之道還是在於在任何環境中，都能先觀逃生路線，並有良好的地震逃生常識，才不至於在突如其來的震撼中，慌亂了手腳。 （資料來源：《大地怒吼》，麥瑟斯．萊維、馬里歐．薩爾瓦多利著，莊安祺譯，時報出版） 新潟大震後，日本餘震不斷 日本新潟地區23日大地震後，直昇機把災民載到安全地區，軍人則把食物和飲用水分送給災民。然而，週一日本北部仍然餘震不斷，也引起大家對於一週內另一起重大地震可能會發生的恐懼和擔憂。 日本官員和媒體報導指出，東京及其週邊地區23日下午5時56分遭芮氏規模6.8強烈地震侵襲，其後發生多次餘震。此外，有多棟房舍倒塌，除一列自東京開往新潟地區的上越新幹線列車於震央附近的長岡車站附近出軌，另有一線列車也出軌，但均未傳出列車出軌造成人員受傷消息。 首次地震於上週六下午5時56分來襲，震央位於新潟縣中越地方，地震深度約20公里，規模為6.8，東京地區建築物曾搖晃數分鐘，其後2小時內發生4次強烈餘震，規模分別為6.3、6.2、5.9和5.9。 氣象廳官員表示，預期還會繼續出現密集餘震。氣象廳表示，今後大約一週期間，仍可能出現6級震度的強烈餘震，以新潟縣為首地區務必要提高警戒。 官員指出，這次強烈地震的深度僅約20公里，由於深度相對較淺因而造成較大損害。有數十名受傷民眾赴新潟縣長岡市主要醫院接受治療，繼供水和供電中斷後，長岡市約有2,400名居民疏散至臨時避難中心避難。 東日本旅客鐵道公司表示，載有大約150名乘客的新幹線列車出軌事故，未造成任何人受傷。一名幹部表示，總共有10節車廂的列車，頭尾兩節車廂出軌，「出軌車廂僅傾斜並未翻倒」。東北電力公司表示，地震來襲後，新潟縣內約25萬戶停電。 據媒體報導，日本首相小泉純一郎已經指示內閣成員，要竭盡全力援救受災民眾和搜集地震相關資訊。 Helicopters lifted people to safety and soldiers handed out food and water as more tremors jolted northern Japan Monday, arousing concerns about the possibility of another powerful earthquake after the country's deadliest in a decade killed at least 24 people. A strong quake with a magnitude of 5.6 shook rural Niigata prefecture, about 250 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, two days after the first big tremor, which also injured more than 2,200. The Japan Meteorological Agency said an increase in aftershocks meant there was a 40 percent chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater in the area in the next week. Saturday's initial quake had a magnitude of 6.8. Forecasts of rain for the evening raised the prospect of more landslides in areas lashed by recently heavy rain, and threatened to hamper emergency relief efforts. The quakes follow a record 10 typhoons to hit Japan this year, including one that killed at least 80 people last week. Tens of thousands of people across the region had spent a second night in shelters or in the open air as temperatures fell below 10 Celsius (50 F) overnight. Some slept in their cars. "There has been big damage to lifelines of electricity, gas and water and many people are at evacuation centers, unable to go home," Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda told reporters. "The government is making every effort ... for disaster relief and reconstruction so that those affected can return to their livelihoods with peace of mind," he said, adding the government would compile an extra budget if needed. The tremor Monday, which struck at 6:05 a.m. (2105 GMT), was one of hundreds of aftershocks since the initial quake, and was felt strongly in Tokyo. There were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries caused by the latest jolt. Nearly 1,000 soldiers were dispatched for rescue and relief, and military helicopters were airlifting people from the village of Yamakoshi, where hundreds were stranded by landslides triggered by Saturday's initial quake. "I have no food, I have nothing to drink, I have no change of clothes for my children. But I'm relieved," said a young woman after being rescued. Other helicopters were carrying food and supplies to areas that had been cut off by landslides or broken roads. As of Monday morning, the number of people evacuated had risen to about 97,000, national broadcaster NHK said. SEISMIC GAP A high-speed bullet train derailed Saturday, though no one was hurt, and other train lines and roads were severely damaged. Tohoku Electric Power struggled to restore electricity to the area, where 62,000 households still lacked electricity Monday. About 2,800 homes were completely or partly destroyed and more than 1,000 other buildings were damaged, NHK said. Phone services were also disrupted. "I can't make phone calls ... and with the roads a wreck, I can't get home," said Iwao Yamamoto, a 47-year-old company employee who had spent the night in a shelter in Ojiya, a rural town where half the population of about 40,000 was evacuated. Saturday's quake was the deadliest in Japan since the Kobe earthquake killed more than 6,400 in 1995. Experts said authorities were better prepared this time. "The response this time wasn't perfect, but it definitely was much better," said Takehiko Yamamura, head of the private Disaster Prevention System Institute. More than 7,000 deaths could be expected in Tokyo if the city was hit by a magnitude 7.2 quake with its focus 20 to 30 km (12 to 19 miles) deep, experts have said. The focus of Saturday's quake was 10 km below the earth's surface. Some Niigata residents ventured back to their homes to inspect damage, but officials warned them to stay away from collapsed buildings because of the danger of aftershocks. "My home is a worry, but I'm more worried this situation will continue," said Mitsuko Saito, an elderly woman at an evacuation center in Ojiya. Experts said that Saturday's tremor had occurred in a "seismic gap" -- the part of an active fault that had experienced little or no seismic activity for a long period, causing stress to build up and making an earthquake more likely. There were no reports of significant damage to industry in the region, which includes chemical and textile manufacturing as well as electronics and food processing. But some factories had halted operations and damage to roads and railways raised concerns about distribution bottlenecks. Tokyo's stock market was down more than 2 percent, but analysts said the earthquake was not a major factor. "At least it didn't hit a city, although road collapses which have interrupted distribution are a worry for the nation's economy," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager of equities marketing at Nikko Cordial Securities. The quakes' magnitude was measured according to a technique similar to the Richter scale but adjusted for Japan's geological characteristics. Japan is one of the world's most seismically active areas, accounting for about 20 percent of the world's earthquakes of magnitude six or greater. (Additional reporting by Elaine Lies, Isabel Reynolds and Linda Sieg in Tokyo) 地震來臨怎麼辦？ 1.避免附帶的災害，尤其是火災，所以應緊急關閉所有的火源，包括電源和瓦斯。 2.順手將門窗打開，避免因地震變形而無法逃生。 3.就地尋找安全庇護處：千萬不可慌張奔跑。若在室內，立即遠離架子和櫃子，背對窗戶，躲入堅固的桌下。不可搭乘電梯。 4.若在郊外，則找空曠的地點，遠離崖邊、水邊、車子。 5.若在街上，迅速躲到騎樓支柱旁，遠離玻璃、加油站、建築工地和天橋，並注意保護頭部。 6.徒步避難：若有避難需要，例如餘震頻繁時，一定要用徒步的方式前往避難場所，千萬不可開車，免得造成阻礙了緊急救援。 7.相互救助：地震容易引發火災，若發現任何災害，要緊急求援，並量力而為幫助救援。但千萬不可在旁觀看熱鬧，而妨礙了救援活動。 8.若不幸受困，千萬要保持清醒及冷靜，以敲打器物代替喊叫，絕對不要放棄求生意志。 （資料來源：行政院國科會地震防災手冊 整理：成怡夏） 日本防震有道 日本是一個地震多的國家，2、3級的地震差不多每月都有。每當有地震發生時，電視節目便會立即播出震央、震級、有無發生海嘯的危險等消息，對大多數日本人來說，這樣的情形早就習以為常，見怪不怪了。由於在日本，小地震時有發生，所以地震時民眾根本就不大驚慌，也不會想到要往外跑，因為那樣反而會更加危險。 在日本，為預防地震並盡可能降低危害，日本內閣府內設有一中央防災會議，會長歷來由日本首相擔任，以引起全國的高度重視。另外，日本政府在1978年制定出「大規模地震對策特別措施法」，規定一旦預測到大地震，在發生前兩、三天，將由首相親自發表「警戒宣言」，政府隨即啟動全面避難救援措施。 除此之外，日本科學家還在水下2千公尺的海槽上安裝發信系統，透過海上受信船的中轉，再發射到人造衛星上，利用全球測位系統密切監視海底板塊的移動。 在一般的政府網頁上，都開設有防災專欄，公佈當地政府的防災政策和措施、發佈防災訓練資訊，並教育市民在發生緊急情況時如何應對等。除此之外，各地震多發區的居民組織，每年都要進行一次綜合性防震訓練和地域防災訓練。 日本全國各地還設有許多體驗中心，免費向市民開放。這些中心內有模擬火災現場的煙霧走廊，還有一個模擬地震室供人們親身體驗6級地震的水準。對日本國民來說，強烈的防災意識已經深入人心。一般的住戶都很清楚所住居民樓的防災緊急通道；在居家佈置時，易倒易碎的物品通常不會擱置在無遮擋的地方；家裏沒人的時候，日本人的習慣是關閉煤氣總閥。 （資料來源╱新華網） |
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