策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

阿拉伯之春爆發後，伊斯蘭主義透過民主選舉的方式接連在北非取得優勢，

穆斯林兄弟會聲勢看漲的同時，伊斯蘭主義已先行在摩洛哥與突尼西亞取得勝利，

自由派人士擔憂，伊斯蘭主義可能導致中東民主前景黯淡無光，

但也有人相信，修正路線的伊斯蘭主義對民主仍有正面助益。

▲埃及開羅一處投票所外頭，張貼著自由正義黨的競選海報，圖攝於11月28日。（圖文／路透）

埃及選民將伊斯蘭主義者推向勝利，自由派被排除至邊緣。雖然穆巴拉克垮台，但埃及軍方仍渴望掌權，因此軍方將領與伊斯蘭主義者的鬥爭於焉展開。

Egyptian voters are sweeping Islamists to a victory that sidelines liberals and sets up a struggle with army generals eager to keep their power despite the fall of Hosni Mubarak.

伊斯蘭主義者分裂成2個主要派系，因此無法全盤掌控政局。如果他們太過積極推動宗教律法，可能要冒著失去游離選票的危險，這些選票將賦予他們跨入政壇的機會。

The Islamists won't have it all their way. They are split into two main factions. If they push a religious agenda too hard, they risk alienating the many floating voters （1）who decided to give them a chance.

對西方世界或推翻穆巴拉克的許多年輕示威者來說，這次選舉結果可能令人不滿。但這也確立了一股趨勢，即起義結束後，伊斯蘭教政黨成為選舉的贏家。過去2個月，突尼西亞和摩洛哥也面臨相同情況。

The outcome of the polls may not be welcome to the West, or to many of the young protesters who overthrew Egypt's ruler of 30 years, but it confirms a trend set by Islamist （2）election wins in post-uprising Tunisia and Morocco in the last two months.

「這對美國和西方在該地區的利益造成影響。」布魯金斯多哈中心研究部長哈米德表示。「但這並非特別與伊斯蘭主義有關，阿拉伯人不喜歡美國政策，所以他們選出的政府也不喜歡美國政策，這只是該地區的一個新現實。」

"It does have implications for U.S. and Western interests in the region," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center. "But it's not a specifically Islamist issue. Arabs don't like U.S. policy, so the governments they elect will not like U.S. policy. It's just a new reality in the region.

開羅未來策略研究國際中心主席索里曼表示：「埃及選民有3項選擇；穆巴拉克政權的餘黨、反對穆氏餘黨最力的伊斯蘭主義者，以及在革命後才開始建立勢力的新興團體。他們拒絕第一個選擇，新興團體尚不成氣候，所以伊斯蘭主義成為他們唯一的選擇。」

"Egyptian voters had three choices: the remnants of the Mubarak regime, an Islamist current that had been its strongest opponents and new groups that started establishing themselves after the revolution," said Adel Soliman, head of Cairo's International Centre for Future and Strategic Studies. "They rejected the first choice and the new groups were not crystallized yet, so Islamists became their only option."

穆斯林兄弟會自1928年成立以來，從未有過任何一刻像現在一樣，如此地靠近政治權力核心。穆斯林兄弟會表示：「那些所有將自己標榜是民主的人士，應尊重人民的意志。」

The Brotherhood, closer to political power than at any time since its founding in 1928, has told "all those who associate themselves with democracy to respect the will of the people."

第一輪投票結果顯示，穆斯林兄弟會的自由正義黨（FJP）贏得約4成的選票；薩拉菲教派的努爾黨出乎意料地贏得20％的選票，自由派的埃及人集團則獲得20％的選票（譯按：埃及人集團的得票率應是13.4％）。

First-round election projections show the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) gaining some 40 percent of the vote, with a surprisingly strong 20 percent for the Salafi al-Nour Party and up to 20 percent for the liberal （3）Egyptian Bloc.

自由正義黨已指出不會和薩拉菲派結盟，而是傾向於跟自由派組成聯盟，一同分擔處理埃及搖搖欲墜的經濟危機，同時也安撫埃及民眾及外人對伊斯蘭主義者治國的疑慮。

The FJP has indicated it will not ally with the Salafis, preferring liberal coalition partners to share the task of dealing with Egypt's crippling economic crisis and to reassure Egyptians and outsiders nervous about Islamist intentions.

索里曼表示，為了接下的幾輪選舉，自由正義黨必須提出溫和且寬廣的論述。「他們必須更進一步將自己呈現為重於民主和自由的非宗教勢力。因為投給他們的人可能會改變心意，這些人並非死忠支持者。」目前，軍事委員會仍掌控埃及政治，並任命甘蘇瑞籌組新政府。

Soliman said the FJP might have to moderate and broaden its discourse even for the remaining stages of the election. "They will have to present themselves more as a civil force focusing on democracy and freedoms, because those who voted for them aren't devoted followers and might change their minds." For now, the military council remains in charge and its appointee, Kamal al-Ganzouri, is forming a new government.

不過，新國會希望能主導新憲法的制定。埃及預計明年6月舉行總統大選，在這之前要先提出新憲法草案，並訴諸公投表決。

But the next parliament will want a major voice in shaping a new constitution that is supposed to be drawn up and put to a referendum before a promised presidential election in June.

選舉籌備階段，軍方委任的政府曾提出一項建議，即制定超越憲法的原則，讓軍方不受人民約束，並賦予軍方在草擬憲法時的重要角色，但這項提議已經不存在了。這起事件引起伊斯蘭主義者對軍方統治的不滿，進而又釀成上個月在解放廣場附近發生的街頭抗爭。

A now-defunct proposal floated by the military-appointed government in the run-up to the election set out supra-constitutional principles that would have shielded the army from civilian control and given it a strong role in writing the constitution. That prompted Islamist protests against army rule, which in turn ignited last month's street confrontations around Tahrir.

埃及軍事分析師札耶特表示，軍方舉辦這次大致上可謂自由的選舉，為自己重拾某些信任；但選舉結果本身卻削弱軍隊本身想要成為埃及至高仲裁者的機會。

Egyptian military analyst Safwat Zayat said the army had regained some credit for running a generally free election, but the vote itself had weakened its chances of embedding itself as Egypt's ultimate arbiter.

「軍隊勢力並無法超出其目前角色，也無法在憲法中保存自己的角色。」札耶特表示。「穆斯林兄弟會現在比之前更強壯，因其它獲得選票的背書。軍隊現在無法將之拉攏，因穆斯林兄弟會在國會中已獲得正當性，彼此的關係已經改變。」

"The military power will not be able to go beyond its current role or enshrine its role in the constitution," Zayat said. "The Brotherhood is now stronger than before because it has voting power. The army cannot co-opt （4）it now that it has legitimacy in parliament. The relationship has changed."

哈米德表示：「這將會是一個強而有力且具有發言權的國會，足以挑戰軍隊對政局的掌控。」他並補充另一個爆發點，穆斯林兄弟會渴望埃及轉變為議會制國家，而不是軍方或某些自由派所屬意的總統制。

"This is going to be a strong and assertive parliament and one that challenges the military's hold on politics," Hamid said, adding one flashpoint （5）would be the Brotherhood's ambition to turn Egypt into a parliamentary system instead of the presidential one favored by the army and some liberals.

「其中一項令人擔憂的事在於，由於恐懼伊斯蘭主義者，自由派人士可能會向軍方靠攏。」他說：「這對埃及的民主來說並非好事，同時也會折損自由派在埃及的民主公信力。」

"One worry is that the liberals will gravitate toward the army over a common fear of the Islamists," he said. "That would not be good for Egyptian democracy and it would undermine the democratic credentials of liberals in Egypt."

哈米德表示，震驚的自由派人士應給伊斯蘭主義者一個治理的機會，因為悲慘的經濟前景意味著他們將「勢必無法達成民眾的期待」。

Hamid said shaken liberals should give Islamists a crack at government, knowing that the dire economic outlook means they will "inevitably fail to deliver on people's expectations."

（路透Reuters）

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