策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

希臘總理巴本德里歐在10月底投出公投震撼彈，在國內外引起軒然大波，

反對者將公投抨擊為民粹，罔顧整體歐元區的經濟利益；

撤銷公投計畫後，支持公投的民眾則不滿經濟壓倒政治，認為民主慘遭犧牲。

藉由此次希臘公投風波，正好可檢視歐盟致力統合境內的經濟與政治生活時，

對各會員國的民主運作究竟產生何種影響。

▲希臘前總理巴本德里歐出席雅典國會，圖攝於2011年6月30日。（圖文／路透）

在義大利、東歐和其它地方，技術官僚政府在推動艱難卻必要的改革上，有著相對較佳的紀錄，希臘可望也由技術官僚來掌權。

In Italy, Eastern Europe and elsewhere, technocratic （1）governments like the one expected to take the reins in Greece have a relatively good record at pushing through reforms seen as tough but necessary.

希臘從政者選擇前歐洲央行副總裁巴帕德莫斯取代巴本德里歐，成為聯合政府的總理。巴帕德莫斯將承繼推動緊縮政策這項吃力不討好的工作。在希臘最新紓困案中，進一步縮減開支、公營部門私有化及裁撤公部門員工等，這些被視為紓困的必要條件。

Greek politicians look set to choose former European Central Bank deputy head Lucan Papademos to replace Prime Minister George Papandreou at the head of a unity government. He would inherit the thankless task of pushing through the harsh measures required as conditions of Greece's latest bailout （2）, further cutting spending, privatizing and firing public sector workers.

義大利前總理貝魯斯柯尼也黯然下台，有些人懷疑，義大利也將走向由技術官僚治理的階段，如1990年代和2000年代初期所見的，由迪尼、德萊瑪與其他人主政。

With Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi also on the ropes, some suspect Italy too might be heading for the kind of technocratic rule it saw in the 1990s and early 2000s under Lamberto Dini, Massimo D' Alemo and others.

這些政府被視為是義大利有史以來較有效率、能夠推動改革的政權。在中歐和東歐，先前的技術官僚統治型政府，通常在危機時期過後，幫助國家復甦。

Those governments are remembered as among Italy's more effective, able to push through reforms. In central and eastern Europe, technocratic governments often run by former bureaucrats have helped countries recover after periods of crisis.

令人意外的是，比起較為民粹或更著重選舉的政府，這類政府有時可能贏得更多民意支持，重視選舉的政府，有時對採取強硬手段反而裹足不前。分析師表示，2009到2010年間，捷克的技術官僚型聯合政府是該共和國誕生不久以來，支持率最高的政府之一。

Perhaps unexpectedly, some of these administrations have won much public support than more populist, electorally-focused governments reluctant to take tough steps. The technocratic unity government that ran the Czech Republic from 2009-10 was one of the most popular in its brief history, analysts say.

巴帕德莫斯的挑戰將在於改變希臘的政治氛圍，讓大眾接受緊縮政策有其必要，而不只感到不公。新領導人上台，讓原本已嚴重的街頭示威雪上加霜，也讓希臘人民對於國際貨幣基金、歐盟和歐洲中央銀行這「三巨頭」的憤怒甚囂塵上。

Papademos' challenge will be to turn the Greek political mood to view further austerity as necessary rather than unfair. The new leadership will be taking power added ever worsening street unrest and growing anger at the demands of the "Troika （3）" of the International Monetary Fund, EU and ECB.

「以希臘的例子來看，正當性會是當前及未來的一項真實難題。義大利也是，但沒這麼嚴重。」政治風險諮詢公司獨家分析的西歐研究處領導人艾格表示。「所謂的『技術性官僚』會被認為是較不受歡迎的政府，他們會被很大一群人歸類為只是三巨頭命令的執行者」。

"In the case of Greece -- also in Italy, but perhaps less so -- there is and will be a real problem of legitimacy," said Pepe Egger, head of the western Europe desk for political risk consultancy Exclusive Analysis. "The 'technocrats' will be seen to have even less of a popular mandate, and they will be branded by a large part of the people as 'mere executors' of the Troika dictate."

「所有人都在關注提前選舉和其結果……我好奇任何在提前選舉前所做的決定，希臘民眾是否會視之為合法。」全球透視機構分析師科蘭尼柯夫表示。

"All eyes will be on the snap election and the outcome ... and I'm wondering whether the Greek public will see any measures passed (before) then as legitimate," said IHS Global Insight Europe analyst Blanka Kolenikova.

這個情形大不相同於中、東歐地區在共產主義瓦解當時，或是2008年金融風暴的財政危機當口。當時好幾個政府垮台，但大眾普遍同意，接續執政的無論是誰，都應該要完成應做之事，確保獲得國際貨幣基金的支持，且繼續留在歐盟當中。

That contrasts with the situation in Central and Eastern Europe after the collapse of communism or the financial turmoil that swept across the region following the 2008 crash. Several governments fell but there was broad agreement that those in charge should do whatever necessary to secure IMF support and remain in the EU.

當時令人吃驚地竟少有民眾抗議，財政和政治穩定相對也很快回復穩定。部分分析師表示，在西歐和世界各地的一股龐大趨勢中，希臘和義大利是眾多極端例子之一，這兩國的民眾傾向於反對由政治和商業菁英階級所提出的解決方案。

There was surprisingly little civil unrest, and financial and political stability returned relatively quickly. Greece and Italy, some analysts say, are in contrast among the most extreme examples of a larger trend in Western Europe and elsewhere -- popular rejection of the solutions of political and business elites.

從巴本德里歐提出以公投讓希臘選民決定是否支持紓困和緊縮方案之後，決策者與市場的震驚反應已凸顯了雙方之間的巨大鴻溝。無論繼任的是否為技術官僚型政府，任何新政府的首要之務就是銜接這一鴻溝。

The horrified reaction of policymakers and markets to Papandreou's suggestion of a referendum （4）to allow the Greek electorate （5）the final decision on the bailout and austerity showed how wide that gulf had become. Bridging it will be one of the first tasks for any new government, technocratic or not.

「對希臘提出公投的反應已清楚顯示，這裡存在太多的矛盾。就某一層面來看，存在著對領導權的渴望；於此同時，你也要求決策能更具包容性。當然，這麼做的風險就只是讓你身陷於癱瘓狀態。」風險控管全球議題分析師伍德表示。

"The reaction to the suggested Greek referendum was quite telling," said Jonathan Wood, global issues analyst at Control Risks. "There are many contradictions going on here. At one level, there is a desire for leadership and at the same time you also have calls for more inclusive decision-making. The risk, of course, is that you simply get paralysis."

（路透Reuters）

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