阿富汗的軍民死傷人數在去年創下新高，

今年5月塔利班又發動春季攻勢，

這意味著阿富汗的暴力衝突問題，

沒有獲得緩和的跡象；

在同一時刻，歐巴馬宣布撤軍計畫，

將維持境內安全秩序的任務交還阿富汗，

儘管阿富汗總統對此表示支持，

但不少民眾擔憂，

撤軍將對安全及經濟帶來衝擊。

美國總統歐巴馬於22日正式發布美軍從阿富汗撤退的計畫。這場戰爭已進行10年之久，國內不滿聲浪日益升高。這次撤兵計畫意義重大，成為終結這場戰爭的第一步。

President Barack Obama was set to unveil on Wednesday his plan to start bringing U.S. troops home from Afghanistan in a significant first step toward ending a decade-long war that is increasingly unpopular in the United States.

歐巴馬於美東夏令時間22日下午8點透過電視演說，公布這項消息。國會代表表示，這次撤軍計畫在年底前從阿富汗撤回1萬名士兵，而在明年夏天前再多撤回2萬3千名兵力。

Obama will announce in a televised address at 8 p.m. EDT (midnight GMT) a plan to pull out 10,000 troops from Afghanistan by year's end, followed by about 23,000 more by the end of next summer, congressional aides told Reuters.

好幾週以來，各界紛紛議論歐巴馬將會在2010年撤回所有派駐到阿富汗大批兵力的新聞，開始推測美國未來將如何修正在阿富汗當地的干預程度；而歐巴馬和一直警告匆促撤軍風險過大的軍事顧問之間，因此增加更多衝突。

News that Obama will pull the entire 'surge' force he sent to Afghanistan in 2010 caps weeks of speculation about the future of U.S. involvement there and could increase friction （1）between Obama and military advisors who have warned about the peris （2）of a hasty drawdown （3）.

911攻擊事件點燃美國和北約軍隊對阿富汗的戰火。戰事已持續近10年，這兩方卻仍不能夠對塔利班採取致命一擊。況且阿富汗政府仍舊疲弱，貪腐情形惡名昭彰，數十億的外援資金並未被善用。

Nearly 10 years after the September 11 attacks that triggered the war, U.S. and NATO （4）forces have been unable to deal a decisive blow to the insurgent （5）Taliban. The Afghan government remains weak and notoriously corrupt and billions of dollars in foreign aid efforts have yielded meager results.

歐巴馬發佈此訊息的前一週，即將卸任的美軍暨北約駐阿富汗部隊指揮官裴卓斯，提出了今年7月起從阿富汗撤回約10萬名美軍的幾種計畫。

Obama's announcement comes the week after General David Petraeus, the outgoing commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, presented several options for drawing down some of the 100,000 U.S. soldiers there starting in July.

歐巴馬的決定似乎反映了他所面臨的兩難壓力：尋求控制政府開支及減少美軍在戰場上的傷亡時，似乎就不得不犧牲各指揮官所提到的、美軍在阿富汗南部所取得的各種進展。

The president's decision appears to reflect the competing pressures he faces as he seeks to rein in government spending and halt American casualties without endangering the gains his commanders say they have made across southern Afghanistan.

歐巴馬決定要在2012年夏天前撤回3萬3千名兵員，這與五角大廈的主事官員們的意見可能不大一致。美國防官員擔心，暴亂份子會重新奪回領土，而在阿富汗東部與巴基斯坦相交的邊界，戰火也會越演越烈。

The decision to withdraw the 33,000 troops by the end of the summer of 2012 is unlikely to sit well with the Pentagon's top brass. They worry that insurgents could regain lost territory and that fighting along Afghanistan's eastern border with Pakistan will intensify.

即將卸任的美國國防部長蓋茲曾表示，在美國能夠證明阿富汗情勢已渡過難關之前，裁撤太多部隊是「不成熟」之舉。

Outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said removing too many troops before the United States can prove it has turned a corner would be "premature."

華府戰爭研究所軍事分析師卓斯勒表示，五角大廈方面比較希望第一波的撤軍行動的規模能夠更小一些。「不過，事實是，阿富汗戰地目前的情況並不會因為任何形式的撤軍而得利，目前還不是移除這麼大量部隊的時候。」他說。「在東部還有很多未竟之事；在南部也還沒有脫離緊急狀況。」

Jeffrey Dressler, a military analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, said the Pentagon would have favored a much smaller initial withdrawal. "But the fact is that the conditions on the ground don't merit any sort of withdrawal -- it's not time to be pulling out a substantive amount of troops," he said. "There's a lot that has to be done in the east and you're not out of the woods in the south yet."

歐巴馬同時還面對來自美國國會內部不斷要求撤兵的聲音。近1／4國會議員已對這場每年耗費1千1百億美元的戰爭感到不耐煩，他們要求更大規模的撤軍。就算美軍確實撤出3萬3千名士兵，駐紮於阿富汗的美軍人數在2012年秋季之前仍會有約7萬人之多，遠多於歐巴馬上任時的駐阿富汗美軍人數。

Yet Obama also faces mounting demands from some quarters of the U.S. Congress, impatient with a war that now costs more than $110 billion a year, for a larger initial drawdown. Even after the withdrawal of the 33,000 U.S. troops, about 70,000 will remain in Afghanistan by the autumn of 2012, more than were there when Obama took office.

由於歐巴馬2012年即將投身連任總統的選戰，所以相當在意美國大眾對這場戰爭並不支持一事。皮尤研究中心21日公布的民調發現，56％的美國人支持盡快將駐紮於阿富汗的美軍撤回美國的計畫。

Obama is mindful of the American public's lack of support for the war as he looks to his 2012 re-election campaign. A Pew Research poll released on Tuesday found a record 56 percent of Americans favor bringing U.S. forces in Afghanistan home as quickly as possible.

白宮這次的決定可能會讓歐洲各國不顧五角大廈過去的警告，勇於進行更快速的阿富汗撤軍行動。分析師表示，由於國防預算緊縮、利比亞戰事的迫切需求，以及阿富汗戰事所招致的不得人心，華府的同盟也希望能夠跟隨美國的腳步撤軍。

The White House decision may embolden European nations to withdraw their own troops more quickly from Afghanistan despite past Pentagon warnings. Analysts said Washington's allies would want to follow the American lead given the squeeze on their defense budgets, the demands of the war in Libya and the unpopularity of the Afghan mission.

「我不認為結局除了走向撤軍離開之外，還有什麼別的辦法。我根本想不出哪個歐洲國家會比美國更想要留在阿富汗。」倫敦的歐洲改革中心的瓦拉塞克表示。

"I don't see how this ends in anything other than a run to the exit. I cannot think of one European country that wants to be in Afghanistan more than the Americans," said Tomas Valasek of the Center for European Reform in London.

美國裁減駐紮在阿富汗的兵力一事，強調了歐巴馬政府將海外駐軍重點更明確地放在巴基斯坦這個擁有核武的國家。華府對於巴國積弱不振的政府和強大的軍隊一直抱持猜疑態度。美國官員認為，巴基斯坦是更大的一個威脅。那裡是賓拉登的故鄉，同時仍舊是以美國為主要攻擊目標的軍事份子大本營。

The drawdown from Afghanistan underscores the Obama administration's shift toward a more explicit focus on Pakistan, the nuclear-armed nation where a weak government and powerful military are viewed with suspicion in Washington. U.S. officials see an even bigger threat emanating from Pakistan, which was home to bin Laden and is still a major base for militants targeting Americans.

然而，分析師也警告，如果美國就這樣離開阿富汗，其實是陷自己入險境中，因為阿富汗有可能重回極端主義掌控或是再次內戰的局面。這兩種可能性都有或許會讓阿富汗再次對蓋達組織門戶洞開。

Still, analysts have cautioned that if the United States walks away from Afghanistan, it does so at its own peril because of the risk the country could topple back into the grip of extremism or renewed civil war. Both of these scenarios could again open the door to al Qaeda.

「重要的是，從現在開始的兩或三年後，會發生什麼事？」瓦拉塞克說。「如果歐巴馬連任，而阿富汗局勢又急轉直下，讓喀布爾變成另一個索馬利亞首都摩加迪休的話，那很明顯地，他就得好好解釋一番了。」

"What will be important is what happens in two or three years from now," Valasek said. "If Obama gets re-elected, and it all goes wrong, and Kabul has turned into another Mogadishu -- then he would clearly have some explaining to do."

（路透 Reuters）

1. friction

(n.) 摩擦、分歧

2. peril

(n.) 風險、危險

3. drawdown

(n.) 減少

4. NATO

(n.) 北大西洋公約組織（North Atlantic Treaty Organization）

5. insurgent

(adj. n.) 反抗政府的（人）

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