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立報—教育專題深入報導
發報時間: 2011-12-29 05:00:00 / 報主:立報—教育專題深入報導
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台 灣 立 報 《 教 育 專 題 深 入 報 導 》 2011-12-29
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台 灣 立 報 《 教 育 專 題 深 入 報 導》 2011-12-29
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38度線存滅:朝鮮半島統一路 南韓青年不看好本報訊

策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

北韓領導人金正日17日過世,么子金正恩成為接班人,

南北韓未來可能的走向立刻成媒體關注的焦點。

過去很長一段時間裡,終極統一一直是超越意識形態之爭的共識,

但由於統一的進程曠日廢時,

加上近十幾年來,支持統一的人數持續減少,

統一的道路上是否會增添其它變數,仍值得未來進一步的觀察。

▲反北韓的南韓民眾27日聚集在首爾的韓國聯盟辦公室(Korea Alliance,支持統一的公民組織)外圍,抗議者的太陽眼鏡倒映著北韓國旗。(圖文/路透)

這是個很吸引人的想法:北韓獨裁者金正日的死亡,最終將為痛苦分裂的朝鮮半島奠定統一基礎,很過去60年,雙方都生活在相互毀滅的威脅中。

It's an appealing concept: the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il will at last pave the way for the bitterly divided Korean peninsula (1) to reunite after living for six decades with the threat of mutual obliteration.

然而困難在於,有越來越多南韓人,特別是年輕族群,希望這個想法保持原狀,停留在概念的階段就好。

The catch is that an increasing number of South Koreans, and in particular the younger generation, would it prefer it stayed that way -- just a concept.

「我寧可不要統一。」首爾一名待業中的21歲大學畢業生李正國表示:「如果我們統一,勞動人口需付更多稅,我們也要更賣力工作,才能推動發展。」

"I'd much rather not have unification (2)," said Lee Jung-guk, a 21-year old college graduate in Seoul who has yet to find full-time work. "If we unify, working people will have to pay more taxes and we need to work harder for economic development."

朝鮮半島被所謂的非軍事區分為兩邊,但這個區域的武裝程度可能更甚於世上其它國界。對一個非常重視種族同質性的民族來說,這些年的分裂深深地在彼此的政治和社會生活上造成傷痕。

For a population very aware of its ethnic homogeneity (3), the years of division have deeply scarred political and social life on either side of what is officially called the Demilitarised Zone but which is in fact bristling with more weaponry than perhaps any other border in the world.

1950至1953年的韓戰以停火協議告終,但雙方並未簽訂和平條約,兩邊都呈現衰敗的景象。但在建國者金日成的領導下,北韓在剛開始看起來情況較佳;將近60年之後,兩韓的經濟發展呈現明顯對比,只是與一開始的情形相反。

When their 1950-53 war ended, with a cease-fire rather than a peace treaty, both Koreas lay in ruin. But it was the North, under its founding president Kim Il-sung, which initially looked the better off. The economic comparison is even more stark almost 60 years later, but in reverse.

南韓目前經濟規模估計是北韓的40倍,南韓是全世界網路最發達國家,該國流行文化在亞洲和其他地區大受歡迎。

South Korea's economy is now an estimated 40 times bigger than its neighbour's, it is the world's most wired society and its popular culture enjoys huge success in Asia and beyond.

相比之下,北韓連餵飽自己都有問題。由於一系列飛彈和核武測試,國際社會對北韓進行制裁,因此即使是簡易的海外銀行交易都無法進行。為支持由金正日兒子金正恩接班的金氏統治王朝,北韓還大費周章塑造個人崇拜。

In contrast, North Korea can barely feed itself, cannot even do simple overseas bank transactions because of tight international sanctions following a series of missile and nuclear tests, and spends huge effort on building up a personality cult to underpin the ruling dynasty that this week passed to Kim Jong-il's son, Kim Jong-un.

對數百萬北韓人來說,統一可能代表著貧窮和連年饑荒的終結。對南韓人來說,統一意味著至少有10年要面臨經濟發展遲緩。兩韓統一的成本預估為1兆美元,這是南韓一整年的經濟產出。

For millions of North Koreans, reunification would mean the end of poverty and years of malnutrition (4). For South Koreans it means at least a decade of slower economic growth. Estimates on the cost of reunification range to as high as $1 trillion (638 billion pounds) -- South Korea's economic output for an entire year.

南韓政府推動「統一基金」構想,希望由私人募款來做為統一所用,但南韓中產階級對此興趣缺缺。

A government initiative for a "unification pot" with private donations has been largely snubbed by the South's middle class.

統一基金的想法是籌措55兆韓圜,用以支付統一第1年的支出。這是南韓政府預估在未來20年內實現統一的情況下所得出的數目。但有研究警告,統一最後花上的金額,可能比預期高出5倍。

The goal is to come up with 55 trillion won (30 billion pounds) to pay for the first year of unification, the government's estimated cost if reunification is done over two decades. The study warned the bill could end up being five times higher.

32歲婦女權美愛表示:「統一的費用將是天文數字,無疑一定是由全南韓人民埋單。老實說,我不知道為什麼我們要全買帳。」她說。

"Unification costs will be astronomical and it will be paid entirely by the people of the South. To be honest, I don't know why we have to pay for all of it," said Kwon Mi-ae, a 32-year-old woman.

趨勢逆轉
TIDE TURNS

金正日過世並沒有對這種看法造成太大改變。去年發生數起造成南韓軍員傷亡的攻擊事件,如延坪島事件和天安艦事件,引起南韓國內反統一聲浪的高漲,讓朝鮮半島的情勢陷入數十年來最緊張的一次。

Kim Jong-il's death has done little to change that view. Anti-unification ranks swelled last year when deadly attacks blamed on the North -- the shelling of an island close to the sea border and the sinking of a navy vessel -- raised tensions on the peninsula to the highest level in decades.

民調證實,隨著渴望統一的年長世代凋零,南韓民眾對於統一的想法產生改變,他們的後輩不願提供紓困資金給北韓社會,他們認為雙邊的共同之處越來越少。

Opinion polls confirm the changing sentiment as the older generation's longing to reunite is replaced by their children's unwillingness to foot the bill for bailing out a society in the North with which they feel less and less in common.

日前一項調查顯示,每4名受訪者中,就有1人反對統一,這是該機構10年來針對統一議題進行民調,反對者比例最高的一次。10年前,只有7%的人反對。

In a Gallup poll this week, one in four respondents were opposed to unification, the highest level seen in the agency's decade of surveys on the issue. A decade ago, only 7 percent were against unification.

今年10月由峨山政策研究學會進行的民調結果也凸顯了世代之間的差異。調查顯示,10%的20多歲年輕人認為,統一不是必要的;50多歲的受訪者中,只有5.5%持同樣想法。南韓4千8百萬人口中,30歲以下的人口約佔1/3。

Underscoring the generational divide, an October poll by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies showed that 10 percent of people in their 20s believed unification was unnecessary, compared with 5.5 percent in their 50s. About a third of the South's 48 million people are under 30.

另一方面,年長的南韓民眾仍保持追求一個韓國的民族目標,對出生在1950年代國家分裂之前的人來說更是如此。

On the other hand, the view that one Korea should remain the national goal is strong among older South Koreas, especially those who were alive before the 1950s split.

75歲的金洪俊在被問到統一是否是不可避免的事時,他回答:「憲法中就這麼寫了,不是嗎?」這名居住在首爾的退休教師說:「我認為這應該是政府各項作為的終極目標。」兩韓的憲法都假定他們對於整個朝鮮半島有管轄權。

"It says in the constitution, doesn't it?" said Kim Hong-joon, a 75-year-old retired teacher living in Seoul, asked if unification was anything other than inevitable. "I think it should be the ultimate goal of everything the government does." Both Koreas' constitutions assume they have jurisdiction over the entire peninsula.

褪色的願望
FADING HOPE

支持統一的人數減少,讓南韓政府陷入尷尬的處境。南韓統一部長柳佑益日前向一群記者表示:「看似巨大的支出只是暫時的,當你仔細思考之後,這個數字一點也不龐大。」

Dwindling support for unification puts the Seoul government in an awkward position. "The seemingly enormous cost is only temporary, and when you think of it, it's not that large," South Korea's Unification Minister Yu Woo-ik recently told a group of reporters.

「這還在我們能負擔的範圍。此外,當你審視我們因分裂而付出的代價之後,你會發現那筆支出更大,且這筆支出還會持續累積。」

"It's a level that we are able to afford. Besides, when you look at the cost we're paying for having this division, there you have a much bigger cost and it's cost that keeps accumulating."

對那些逃離貧窮及壓迫,卻將家人仍在北韓的脫北者來說,他們對快速統一願望的衰退有特別深的感受。許多人擔心,留在故鄉的家人可能會被監禁,還可能被虐待。

The fading hope of any quick unification is perhaps most keenly felt by those who fled the poverty and persecution of the North but left family members behind. Many fear their loved ones are likely imprisoned back home, possibly subject to torture.

金松胡沿鴨綠江逃到中國,並於去年抵達南韓。他表示金正日之死並未改變任何事,也沒有跡象顯示北韓即將垮台,帶來統一。40歲的金松胡說:「我想要統一。」他把11歲的兒子和妻子留在北韓。

Kim Song-hu, who defected across the Yalu River into China and arrived in the South last year, said the death of Kim Jong-il had not changed anything and that there was no sign the regime was about to collapse and bring forward unification. "I want unification," said Kim, who is 40 and said he left his 11-year-old son and wife behind in the North.

「不過,這是現在這裡所有脫北者的願望,不論有沒有孩子,我們對統一的渴望更甚於任何其他事情。」

"But that's the same for all the defectors (5) who are here now, with or without kids, we want that more than anything else."

(路透Reuters)


關鍵字詞
Key Words

1. peninsula

(n.) 半島

2. unification

(n.) 統一

3. homogeneity

(n.) 同質性

4. malnutrition

(n.) 營養不良

5. defector

(n.) 叛逃者,在南北韓關係脈絡下特指脫北者

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