這場不太可能結束泰國多年來政治衝突的大選結束後一天，泰國反政府抗議者表示3日將持續其推翻總理盈拉的計畫。

（上圖）曼谷一位反政府抗議者拿著諷刺政治人物的紙板參與抗議活動，圖攝於2014年1月27日。（圖文／路透）

示威者阻撓了全國1／5選區的投票程序，表示盈拉必須辭職，並讓指派人選組成的「人民議會」接管，藉此改革他們所稱遭盈拉富有兄長、泰國前總理戴克辛挾持的政治體制。

2日受到主要反對黨杯葛的大選中，由於泰國北部及東北部的投票順利結束，幾乎可保證盈拉能重新掌權。盈拉的支持者勢必將主張其政權擁有合法性。

然而，在泰國這個原本廣受遊客及投資客歡迎、卻因8年來政治極化及騷動而卻步的國家，這場選舉不太可能改變已然癱瘓的現況，只會讓曼谷中產階級及皇室與大部分貧困鄉村的戴克辛家族支持者間的衝突加劇。

除了發生少數騷動，這場選舉大致和平，並未重演前幾日的混亂局面。當時盈拉的支持者及反對者在曼谷北部發生衝突，7人因槍傷或爆炸受傷。

泰國選委會表示，全國375個選區中有69個選區的投票遭阻擾，占18％，影響到77省中的18省。

這場受到干擾的選舉意味著國會議員還需要幾週時間才能選出，盈拉因此得以維持看守總理的職位。

抗議領袖蘇德向支持群眾表示，他3日將在曼谷市中心公園發動一場抗議活動。蘇德2013年11月誓言，將持續施壓政府，讓泰國政局擺脫戴克辛家族的影響。

「經歷了兩個多月的抗議，這場選舉將鞏固盈拉的政權，但她的麻煩還未結束。」泰國智庫暹羅資訊社主管康元永表示：「我們將看到衝突及僵局持續，甚至有可能引發更暴力的衝突。」

盈拉表示，這場大選是「正面的象徵」，但泰國仍需長久的解決辦法。

「這場選舉是民主程序的一部分。」她向記者表示：「我希望各方都能協助解決這個國家的種種困境。」

抗議者表示，前電信鉅子戴克辛的金錢政治及民粹主義摧毀了泰國脆弱的民主，指控他靠著發放補貼、低利貸款及健保來拉攏貧困者，進而保證其政黨自2001年以來連連勝選。

戴克辛的批評者也指控他不敬重泰皇，不過他本人反對這項指控。

反對戴克辛家族的抗議者除了在泰國南部及曼谷中產階級受到廣大支持，背後也有泰國皇室寡頭撐腰；後者視戴克辛為腐敗的裙帶資本主義者，痛恨其政治秩序急劇增長。

為了逃避因貪污罪而被判處的刑期，戴克辛自2008年起流亡海外，批評者認為盈拉只不過是他的替身。

戴克辛的支持者則指控軍隊及包括司法體系在內的政權，多年來不斷共謀推翻其政府。

軍方自泰國1932年實施君主立憲以來發動過多次政變，並在2006年推翻戴克辛政權，但在這次衝突中軍方卻保持靜默。

由於法院正審理多項反對盈拉及其政府的訴訟，戴克辛的支持者擔憂法院可能再次干預。他們揚言，若政府遭法官或軍方罷黜，他們也將發動抗議。（路透）

▲曼谷市郊一場選舉造勢活動上，一位政府支持者在頭上綁著「尊重我的選票」布條，圖攝於2014年1月31日。（圖文／路透）

相關閱讀

【泰政治危機 媒體預測可能發展】http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-137430

【收購稻米換選票 政府、農民、納稅人皆輸】http://www.lihpao.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-137432

Thai anti-government protesters planned to forge ahead on Monday with efforts to topple Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, a day after a disrupted election that is unlikely to settle the country's long-running political conflict.

The demonstrators blocked balloting（1） in a fifth of the country's constituencies（2） and say Yingluck must resign and make way for an appointed "people's council" to overhaul（3） a political system they say has been taken hostage by her billionaire brother and former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Sunday's election, which the main opposition party boycotted（4）, is almost certain to return Yingluck to power and with voting passing off peacefully across the north and northeast, Yingluck's supporters will no doubt claim a legitimate mandate.

But the vote is unlikely to change the dysfunctional status quo in a country popular among tourists and investors yet blighted by eight years of polarisation and turmoil, pitting the Bangkok-based middle class and royalist establishment against the mostly poor, rural supporters of the Shinawatras.

Apart from a few scuffles, the election was peaceful, with no repeat of the chaos seen the previous day, when supporters and opponents of Yingluck clashed in north Bangkok, with seven wounded by gunshots or explosions.

Voting was disrupted in 18 percent of constituencies, 69 out of 375, nationwide, the Election Commission said, affecting 18 of 77 provinces.

The disruptions mean it could be weeks before parliamentary seats are filled, so Yingluck will remain a caretaker.

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban told a crowd of supporters he would lead a rally to a central Bangkok park on Monday. He vowed to press on with his bid, launched in November, to rid politics of the influence of the Shinawatra family.

"Having gone through more than two months of protests, the election will strengthen Yingluck's position, but her troubles are not over yet," said Kan Yuanyong, director of the Siam Intelligence Unit think-tank.

"We'll see a continuation of the conflict, the standoff remains and the likelihood of more violence could increase."

Yingluck said the election was a "positive signal", but a lasting solution was needed.

"This election is part of the democratic process," she told reporters. "I hope all sides can help solve each of the country's problems."

The protesters say former telecoms tycoon Thaksin has subverted a fragile democracy with money politics and populism, doling out subsidies, cheap loans and healthcare to woo the poor and guarantee victory for his parties in every election since 2001.

Thaksin's critics also accuse him of disrespecting the monarchy, which he denies.

The anti-Shinawatra demonstrators enjoy broad support from southerners and Bangkok's middle class and are tacitly backed by a royalist oligarchy that sees Thaksin as a corrupt crony capitalist and resents the rapid rise of his political order.

Thaksin has lived abroad since 2008 to avoid a jail term for a graft（5） conviction he says was politically motivated. Critics say Yingluck is merely a stand-in for him.

Thaksin's supporters accuse the military and the establishment, including the judiciary, of colluding over the years to oust his governments.

The military, which has staged numerous coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, overthrew Thaksin in 2006 but has stayed aloof this time.

With several cases against Yingluck and her party taken up by the courts, Thaksin's supporters fear judges might intervene again and they have threatened to stage their own protests if the government is ousted, by the courts or the military.（Reuters）

1.ballot（n.）選票

2.constituency（n.）選區

3.overhaul（v.）徹底革新

4.boycott（v.）杯葛

5.graft（n.）貪污

反對者可能向選委會提出選舉無效的申訴，若憲法法庭判定選舉無效並擇期重新舉辦，盈拉將維持看守總理職位，若無國會同意就沒有制定政策或國家預算的權力。這可能讓泰國陷入數個月的混亂局面。抗議可能持續，暴力、軍方介入及司法干預的可能性都增加。

盈拉的為泰黨可能會在選舉中獲勝，但由於多個選區受到抗議者干擾，國會可能無法獲得選出總理及成立政府的法定最低席次。

抗議者可能成功地在席次不足的選區持續拖延選舉，而僅能維持看守總理的盈拉，在制定政策及引領經濟的權力都相當有限的情況下，職位將面臨挑戰。

選委會可能在部分選區獲得足夠選票，達到國會最低席次，讓盈拉再次當選總理。然而，由於選舉程序問題及其他司法挑戰，盈拉的職位仍不穩固，此外抗議者可能持續干擾曼谷的各部門運作。

過去數週來，泰國法庭相當反常的積極審理針對為泰黨意圖更改憲法的多項訴訟，可能造成為泰黨解散並限制其官員的政治權力。

目前，308位前議員因涉嫌瀆職而遭指控，大多數為為泰黨成員。此外，憲法法庭也正判定政府在沒有國會同意下是否能合法簽署國際協定，泰國國家反貪腐委員會也加速調查盈拉領導的稻米收購計畫。

泰國軍方至今試圖保持中立，不過軍方高層的立場與抗議者一致，可能發動罷黜盈拉的政變。1日曼谷北部的嚴重衝突可能重演，若政府無法避免暴力，軍方可能以避免流血衝突為藉口罷黜盈拉。不過軍方政變的可能性較小，因為要避免紅衫軍發動反擊並帶來嚴重後果。

由於當前看守政府權力有限，近日各反政府杯葛活動又動搖其穩固程度，盈拉可能在與反對方協商後同意下台。然而，若國會未能選出總理並成立新內閣，將讓泰國產生權力真空，而泰國憲法中也未有應對此局勢的明確程序。

在缺乏下議院的情況下，擁有部分立法權力的法院或上議院高層可能被賦予籌組過渡政府的任務，直到再次舉行選舉並擬定政治改革程序為止。（整理自《路透》）

（圖說）曼谷商業區中心一位反政府抗議者5日正在清掃街道。日前抗議者在此處紮營示威，不過選後紮營人數劇減，後方海報寫著「關閉曼谷，重啟泰國」。（圖文／路透）