策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

俄國國家院即將舉行大選，共產黨的支持度徘徊在15％到20％之間，

在經濟上，俄國被資本主義的浪潮所席捲；

在政治上，蒲亭大權在握，可望於明年當選總統。

面對這一局勢，俄國共產黨的未來將何去何從？

▲俄羅斯的共產黨支持者在莫斯科市中心遊行，紀念1917年的布爾什維克革命，圖攝於2011年11月7日。（圖文／路透）

蘇聯垮台逾20年，裘加諾夫的辦公室仍留有一尊列寧的白色頭像，他仍希望俄羅斯能重新由共產主義者統治。

Twenty years after the Soviet Union collapsed, Gennady Zyuganov still has a small white bust of Lenin in his office and still says he wants to restore communist rule to Russia.

民調顯示，在這個資本主義盛行且由蒲亭主導的國家裡，裘加諾夫這名死忠共產黨領袖和他的黨派幾乎沒有機會贏得大選。

Opinion polls show the veteran communist leader and his party have almost no chance of winning elections in a country where capitalism is now rampant and Vladimir Putin is dominant.

這名身材魁梧的前物理教師重回選戰，對蒲亭領導的團結俄羅斯黨大肆批評，並用他家喻戶曉的低沉嗓音嚴責資本主義。台下聽他慷慨陳詞的群眾大多是揮舞紅旗的年長者。

The burly former physics teacher is back on the campaign trail, booming out criticism of Putin's United Russia party and lambasting capitalism in his by now familiar bass voice to crowds of often elderly supporters waving red flags.

「1917年，沒人相信10月革命會發生。不要（針對選舉結果）太快下結論。」裘加諾夫於該黨位於莫斯科的中央委員總部接受《路透》訪問時表示。

"No one believed in 1917 that the October Revolution would happen. Don't rush to conclusions (about the elections)," Zyuganov told Reuters in an interview at the party's central committee headquarters in Moscow.

民調顯示，團結俄羅斯黨仍舊會占國家院（下議院，又稱國家杜馬）多數，而共產黨落後約13％。同一項調查中也預估，蒲亭在3月的總統大選中可望順利當選。

Polls indicate United Russia will remain dominant in the State Duma （1）(lower house) with the Communists far behind on about 13 percent of votes. The same surveys also predict a comfortable victory for Putin in a presidential election in March.

不過對共產主義者來說，在國家院選舉中屈居第二已堪滿意，因為這能確保俄羅斯共產黨仍為主要的國會反對黨。

But second place in the Duma election could be enough to satisfy the Communists, ensuring they remain Russia's main parliamentary opposition party.

「事實上，他們並不抱持勝利的希望。他們有不同的目標，像是保持他們在國家院的地位。」政治分析家歐爾席金表示，形容共產黨員是「體制內的反對力量」之一。

"In reality they don't hold out hope of victory. They have different goals which involve just keeping their position in the State Duma," political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin said, describing the Communists as part of a "systemic opposition."

裘加諾夫否認他的所屬黨派與國家院中的其他團體一樣，都是易妥協的反對黨。旁人所指的易妥協反對黨包括：持反對意見的吉里諾夫斯基所領導的自由民主黨，還有在不久之前仍為團結俄羅斯黨堅實同盟的正義俄羅斯黨。

Zyuganov dismissed suggestions his party was part of a pliant opposition with the other groups in the Duma -- maverick （2）Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democrats and the Just Russia party, until recently a firm ally of United Russia.

不過，在勝選對共產黨來說並非最重要之事的態勢下，裘加諾夫表示，他希望選民支持他所屬黨派，因為相對於團結俄羅斯黨，「我們在國家院需要一個制衡的力量」。

But in a sign that winning is not everything for the Communists, Zyuganov said he wanted voters to back his party "because we need a counterweight （3）in the Duma" to United Russia.

共產黨表示，他們擔心國家院選舉會有舞弊情形出現，並抱怨他們和其他反對黨，並不像團結俄羅斯黨一樣在電視上有足夠的播放時間，這是因為電視節目內容由蒲亭和麥維德夫所把持。

The Communists say they fear foul play in the Duma election and complain that they and other opposition parties do not have as much air time on television as United Russia because coverage is dominated by Putin and Medvedev.

不過，他們仍指望能透過年長俄羅斯人的選票得到勝選；年長者對於過去共黨時期相對穩定的環境較為喜愛。

But they still bank on winning votes from elderly Russians who preferred the relative stability of the communist past.

「我的年金很少，但按照蘇聯時期法律，可以領的年金較為豐厚。回到那時，我們還沒失去人造衛星，看看現在發生了什麼事。」73歲的塞吉葉維娜表示，她只透露了名字和原生家庭的姓氏。她指的是俄羅斯在太空計畫上的挫敗。

"My pension is tiny, while under Soviet laws it was quite decent. Back then we didn't lose our satellites, and look at what's happening now," said Galina Sergeyevna, 73, who gave only her name and patronymic, referring to space program setbacks.

裘加諾夫也希望共產黨能為較年輕的族群提供些什麼。如果該黨派想要生存下去的話，這點很重要，因為年長支持者的數量每年在減少。

Zyuganov also hopes the Communists have something to offer younger people. This is vital if the party is to survive because the number of older supporters is dwindling with each year.

「3萬名年輕人加入了共產黨。我們的選民是能夠閱讀、思考和工作的人民，是在小型或中型企業中的人民、是那些屬於發明者的人民、是那些了解國家正被拖進死巷狠狠圍毆的人民。」他說。

"Thirty thousand young people have joined the party. Our voters are people who read, think and work, people in small and medium business, people who are inventors, people who understand that the country is being dragged up a dead-end street and kicked from all sides," he said.

裘加諾夫可能有辦法吸引一些對蘇聯統治時期沒有記憶的年輕人。不過對許多人來說，共產黨是一個詛咒，在蘇聯70年的統治期間，發生了處決異己、流放至西伯利亞勞改營、糧食及其他貨物短缺，以及嚴格的旅行限制等夢魘。

Zyuganov may be able to pick up votes from some young people with no memory of the Soviet era. But for many other people, the Communists are anathema （4）after seven decades of Soviet rule which included the execution of opponents, the exile of many more to prison camps in Siberia, shortages of many goods, and severe travel restrictions.

「當蒲亭開始執政以後，至少這樣的生活有了一些改變。」26歲的旅行社從業人員亞特永表示。

"When Putin came to power at least something started to change in this life," said Artyom, 26, a travel agency operator.

裘加諾夫另一項所面臨的挑戰在於，要說服大多數著迷於消費者義的俄羅斯人，共產主義在現代俄羅斯佔有一席之地。現今的俄羅斯各大城充斥著流行的汽車、昂貴的購物中心和豪華餐廳。

Zyuganov also faces a challenge to convince the many Russians addicted to consumerism that communism has a place in modern Russia, where cities are awash with flashy cars, expensive shopping malls and luxury restaurants.

「我不會投給共產黨，我不想回到做任何事都要大排長龍的時代。」一名自稱李永德米拉的年輕莫斯科居民表示。

"I wouldn't vote communist. I wouldn't want the long queues back," said a young Muscovite who gave her name as Lyudmila.

共產黨已試圖要修改黨綱，讓其能與時並進，配合現代生活。裘加諾夫曾談及要增加預算投入環境保護，也小心翼翼表示，共產黨尊重民主、人權和言論自由。

The party has tried to update the communist platform for the modern day. Zyuganov talks of spending more to protect the environment and is careful to underline that his party respects democracy, human rights and freedom of speech.

然而，他所使用的語言仍充滿來自蘇聯時期的用語，像是對「投機的自由資本主義」的批評、對西方「摯愛的美國」的嘲弄和對資本主義社會「腐敗、偷竊和強盜」的譴責。

But his language is still peppered with phrases from the Soviet era, with criticism of "speculative （5）liberal capitalism," mockery of the West's "beloved America" and condemnation of the "corruption, theft and banditry" of capitalist society.

共產黨的口號「多數人的政治，致勝之道」就印在一本封面繪有穿著紅色外衣、手持共產黨象徵物鐵槌鐮刀的健壯勞工的簡易手冊上。

The Communists' slogan "Politics of the majority - the way to victory!" in a simple pamphlet featuring cartoons of a muscular laborer in red overalls bearing the party's hammer-and-sickle symbol.

他們所提出的政策包括將天然資源以及主要企業國有化、承諾社會保障或是國家撥款等。該黨金融政策主要是成立一群公營銀行，財政政策包括引進累進稅率，俄羅斯個人所得稅目前採13％的固定稅率。

Policies include nationalizing natural resources and key branches of industry and promising social guarantees, or state handouts. Financial policy would be based on a group of state banks and fiscal policy would involve introducing a progressive tax. Russia now has a flat 13 percent personal income tax.

在1993年慘敗之後，共產黨贏得了1995年的國家院選舉；不過，數個月後的1996年總統大選中，裘加諾夫以些微差距輸給了葉爾欽。

After a poor showing in 1993, the Communists won the 1995 Duma election, but Zyuganov narrowly lost out on the big prize when Boris Yeltsin held on to the main seat of power in a presidential election a few months later in 1996.

雖然共產黨在1999年國會選舉中仍是最大的單一黨派，但卻已漸漸失去影響力。團結俄羅斯黨自2003年起一直是國家院最大黨。在被葉爾欽擊敗之後，裘加諾夫在2000年的總統大選中被蒲亭打敗，而在2008年又敗給麥維德夫。

Although the Communists remained the biggest single party in parliament in an election in 1999, they have since lost ground and United Russia has held sway in the Duma since 2003. After his defeat by Yeltsin, Zyuganov was also beaten to the presidency by Putin in 2000 and by Medvedev in 2008.

（路透Reuters）

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