策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

從選前的新憲政制度、競選的嚴苛規定到選舉結果，

2008年緬甸通過的憲政安排，

已註定軍政府勢力不會隨選舉消退；

具有指標性意義的重量級民主派異議人士，

被排除在選舉外；

結果揭曉後，

軍方支持的政黨共取得高達8成席次。

因此，鮮少人認為緬甸已步入民主時代，

這次大選沒有任何重大改變。

■擁護民主的行動人士打扮成軍人，站在模擬的票櫃附近，票櫃上是諾貝爾和平獎得主翁山蘇姬的肖像（左）與軍政府最高領導人丹瑞的肖像。這場抗議活動於7日在泰國曼谷舉行，他們譴責這場由緬甸軍方所主導的選舉。（圖文／路透）

在7日舉辦的大選後，緬甸軍政府統治者將會把政權移交到新的政府手中，不過很少人期待這次選舉會對權力分配帶來實質改變，軍政府和其同盟仍會主導國會和重要職位。

Myanmar's military rulers will hand over to a new government after a general election on Sunday, but few expect it to bring any real change in power, with the military and its proxies likely to dominate parliament and senior positions.

為何緬甸要舉辦選舉?Why is Myanmar holding elections?因為西方制裁、數十年來的貪腐和經濟的管理不當，導致這個資源豐富的國家陷入癱瘓。在英國殖民統治下，緬甸曾是全球最大的稻米出口國。

Western sanctions and decades of corruption and economic mismanagement have crippled the resource-rich country, which was the world's top rice exporter under British colonial rule.

雖然緬甸和中國及其他亞洲國家的貿易情況已經有所好轉，但在西方國家眼中，由於緬甸政權的人權紀錄不良，國際社會並不接納這個國家。長久以來，緬甸的軍事極權主義早讓其地區盟友不太舒服。所以緬甸領導人可能認為，為了要讓國家看起來具有正當性，讓部分民眾參與政治是必要的。

Although trade with China and other Asian countries is picking up, the regime is a pariah in the West because of its poor human rights record. Military totalitarianism has long placed Myanmar's regional allies in an uncomfortable position and its leaders probably recognize that some civilian participation in politics is necessary in order to appear legitimate.

分析家表示，緬甸希望能打開大門並吸引投資。執政的將領們曉得，他們必須要放棄權力，至少名義上需如此。不過他們希望在未來長時間內，能確保他們自身及其代理人得以掌控政治、司法及經濟。

Analysts say Myanmar wants to open up and attract investment. The generals know they must give up power -- nominally at least -- but they want to ensure they and their proxies have control of politics, the judiciary and the economy long into the future.

政府如何形成?How will a government be formed?這次選舉選出的是參議院、下議院和14個地方議會的代表。國會議員將會選出任期為5年的總統和2名副總統。

The polls will elect representatives for a two-chamber parliament and 14 regional assemblies. Members of the national parliament will elect a president and two vice-presidents for five-year terms.

總統候選人未必要是國會議員，不過必須要是緬甸公民。有人猜測，緬甸的最高領導人丹瑞將軍和他的心腹副手蒙艾和隋曼，都在覬覦這些職位。

A presidential candidate does not have to be a member of parliament but must be a civilian. There is speculation Myanmar's ruler, Senior General Than Shwe and his most trusted aides, Maung Aye and Shwe Man, are eyeing these positions.

所有候選人需年滿45歲，父母和本人需擁有緬甸國籍，且必須持續居住於緬甸境內達20年。最後這項規定排除掉了流亡海外的政治人物參選。候選人的配偶和子女也不可為外國籍。

Candidates must be over 45 years old, have Burmese citizenship and parentage and have lived in the country for 20 years continuously, which sidelines exiled politicians. Candidates can also not have a foreign spouse of foreign children.

新總統將會指派各部會首長，部長人選不需為當選的國會議員。總統也將會派任首席大法官和檢察總長。國會只有在總統指派人選不符合憲法規定的條件之時，才得以反對其任命。

The president will appoint （1）ministers, who need not be elected house representatives. The president will also choose the chief justice and attorney general. Parliament can only challenge the appointments if the individuals do not meet qualifications outlined in the constitution.

軍隊將扮演何種角色?What role will the military hove?相當重要的角色。有4分之1的議員席次保留給由軍隊首領所指派的現役軍官。最近退休的軍官和軍政府的代表們，可望贏得保留席次以外的大多數席次。由軍隊控制的新國會也可望會提名並選出目前軍政府體系內的新生代來接掌握有大權的總統職位。

A very significant one. A quarter of the seats in all legislative chambers have been reserved for serving military officers appointed by the armed forces chief. Recently retired soldiers and junta proxies representing pro-military parties will probably win most of the other seats. The army-dominated parliament is expected to nominate and elect a member or protégé （2） of the current junta to be the all-powerful president.

總統必須任命3名現役將領為部長來監督國家安全。在國家進入緊急狀況之時，軍隊統帥若認有「聯邦分裂」的危險，則他可能獨攬大權。緬甸軍隊從未表明要從政治當中脫身，緬甸憲法的第一頁明文寫著：軍隊「能夠參與全國政治領導人之職」。

The president must name three serving generals as ministers overseeing security. The military chief can assume full sovereign power in a state of emergency if he believes the "disintegration of the union" is a danger. The military has never said it would withdraw from politics. The first page of the constitution states the military is "able to participate in the national political leadership role."

選舉的包容性多大?How inclusive will the polls be?像是諾貝爾和平獎得主翁山蘇姬等緬甸政治界的幾位知名人士，目前仍是遭到軍政府扣押；部分不支持軍方的政黨也不被准許參加選舉。被允許參選的政黨則少有發揮的空間。

Some of the biggest names in Burmese politics, such as Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, are in detention （3） and some parties not aligned with the military were not allowed to participate in the vote. Those allowed to take part have little room for maneuver.

支持民主的政黨抱怨，他們遭受到威脅，也幾乎沒有準備、徵召候選人或募款的空間。政府限制並審查拉票及競選活動；不支持由軍政府所支持之政黨的候選人表示，選民通常感到害怕而不跟他們交談。

Pro-democracy parties complain they have been intimidated and given little to prepare, recruit candidates or raise funds. Canvassing and campaign activities have been restricted and scrutinized, and candidates not aligned with military-backed parties say voters are often too scared to talk to them.

幾個少數族群的政治團體要求組黨，但遭拒絕。有些前反抗團體的領袖申請獨立參選，但也遭到政府否決。

Several ethnic minority political groups had requests to form parties rejected. Some former rebel leaders applied to run as independents but that was denied.

軍政府以無法進行自由公平選舉為由，取消數百個位在少數族群地區村落的選舉。這些地方是反抗者意圖阻止投票進行的區域。但少數族群政黨表示，在被軍政府取消選舉的選區中，政府害怕其代理人會落敗。

The junta （4） has scrapped voting in hundreds of villages in ethnic minority areas where it says free and fair polls will not be possible. These could be places where rebels might try to prevent balloting, although minority parties believe they are constituencies in which the junta fears its proxies will lose.

西方會因為選舉而終止制裁嗎?Will the west lift sanctions?因為限制重重的選舉法規，還有軍政府拒絕釋放政治犯，終止制裁是不可能發生的。不過，儘管這場選舉是一場沒有帶來真正民主的改革，但是否要取消制裁的爭論也會因此而加劇。有許多投資者熱衷於從緬甸尚未開發的潛力當中獲取利益。

Because of the restrictive election laws and the junta's refusal to free political prisoners, this is unlikely. But even an election that brings reforms without genuine democracy would sharpen the debate over whether sanctions （5） should be removed. There are plenty of investors keen to take advantage of Myanmar's untapped potential.

（路透Reuters）

關鍵字詞Key Words1. appoint

(v.) 任命、委派

2. protégé

(n.) 受提攜的後進

3. detention

(n.) 拘留、扣押

4. junta

(n.) 軍政府

5. sanction

(n.) 制裁

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