西非區域聯盟「西非經濟共同體」（ECOWAS）的各國領袖12月24日表示，如果巴波再不自願下台，將權力交給烏阿塔哈，將使用「正當武力」驅逐巴波。

The heads of state of West African regional bloc ECOWAS said on December 24 they could use "legitimate force1" to oust Gbagbo if he does not step down voluntarily and cede power to Ouattara.

自這場政治僵局開始以來，西非經濟共同體的聲明讓巴波第一次直接面臨武力威脅。西非經濟共同體聲明重要的地方在於，象牙海岸目前所面臨的軍事干預是來自巴波的鄰國，而非他先前所指控干預象國內政的西方勢力。

The announcement marked the first direct threat of force in the standoff, and is notable because it came from Gbagbo's neighbors, as opposed to the Western powers he has accused of meddling in internal Ivorian politics.

目前看來，西非經濟共同體發表的聲明比較像是對巴波的施壓策略，而非真會採用的干預措施。這番聲明也與美國和歐盟的制裁，以及世界銀行和西非中央銀行的財政凍結同一陣線。

At the moment, the comment appears to be a pressure tactic as opposed to an imminent threat of intervention, and come alongside U.S. and E.U. sanctions and financing freezes by the World Bank and West African central bank.

西非經濟共同體擁有很大的調停空間，表示會先派遣特使前往象牙海岸，給巴波最後通牒。但西非經濟共同體並未明確指出特使為誰，又將於何時出訪象牙海岸，以及最後通牒詳細內容為何。

ECOWAS has given itself lots of room to maneuver, saying it will send an envoy to give Gbagbo an ultimatum without saying who the envoy will be, when he will go, or what the details of the ultimatum will be.

如果最後西非經濟共同體真的派出軍隊，而巴波在面臨威脅時仍拒絕讓步，就有可能引發公開衝突。巴波的政府軍將會集結對抗被稱為西非維和部隊（ECOMOG）的西非經濟共同體軍隊。2002年，巴波政府軍就曾出兵制止企圖推翻巴波的北方反抗軍起事。

If a force is eventually sent in by ECOWAS, and Gbagbo refuses to budge in face of the threat, it would potentially trigger open conflict. Gbagbo's government army would be up against the ECOWAS force, known as ECOMOG, as well as the northern rebels who tried to topple him in 2002.

儘管國際已對象牙海岸施行軍事禁運，分析家表示，政府軍和反抗勢力多年來一直在加強武裝。這次選舉爭議重新激起了象牙海岸南北分裂議題；在反抗勢力大本營的北方，數以萬計的選票被視為無效。

Despite an arms embargo2, analysts say both government forces and rebels have been re-arming for years. The election row has reignited north-south divisions as hundreds of thousands of votes were canceled in the rebel-held north.

上週，支持烏阿塔哈的反抗軍和政府軍曾於鐵比蘇（Tiebissou）短暫交火。鐵比蘇是界於反抗軍控制的北方和政府軍控制的南方之間的城鎮。

Pro-Ouattara rebels and government forces briefly exchanged fire last week in Tiebissou, the central town marking the line between the rebel-held north and government-held south.

任何大規模的軍事威脅，都會興起象牙海岸人民紛紛逃至鄰國的難民潮。事實上，象牙海案的諸鄰國，也不合適再容納更多的外來人口。

Any big military push would risk triggering a rush by Ivorians for refuge in neighboring countries which are in no fit state themselves to take in extra civilians.

聯合國難民事務高級專員公署（UNHCR）表示，自從上個月的選舉過後，已經有超過4千象牙海岸人民跨過國境逃到賴比瑞亞，逃到幾內亞的則約2百多名。難民公署補充，正在研擬模擬計畫，應對可能會發生的更大規模人口遷出。

More than 4,000 people have already crossed into Liberia and some 200 into Guinea since last month's election, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has said, adding that it was making contingency plans for a possible greater exodus3.

象牙海岸若重回衝突狀態，將會癱瘓可可豆運輸到全球的通路，因為屆時整條生產鏈上，從可可生長的地區到輸出港口都會受戰火波及。

A return to conflict could jeopardize cocoa deliveries to world markets if supply routes from growing regions to the ports were disrupted. Yet longtime observers note that supplies got to market even at the height of the 2002-2003 conflict.

近日來國際各界紛紛企圖對巴波施壓，希望他能自動交出權力，西非共同體的軍事介入威脅就是其中一例。而各界施壓可能真的有效。

The threat of a military4 intervention by ECOWAS is one prong in a multi-pronged international effort to pressure Gbagbo to voluntarily leave power. It could work.

巴波和他圈子中的核心人物，已成為美國和歐盟禁飛名單上的成員。世界銀行和西非經濟貨幣聯盟（West African Economic and Monetary Union）的中央銀行，也對巴波政府進行資金凍結。除此之外，巴波政府還面臨違反人權的指控。

Gbagbo and his inner circle have been targeted with U.S. and EU travel bans, World Bank and Central Bank of West African Economic and Monetary Union finance freezes, and the threat of prosecution for alleged human rights violations.

雖然巴波沒有屈服於外界壓力的跡象，他也可能會開始覺得，目前外界存在著太多反對他的措施，特別是還切斷他的金脈，這會讓他重新思考流亡似乎是一個可行的選項。

While Gbagbo has shown no sign of caving in to the pressure, he may start to find that the measures against him, particularly those choking off his cash flow, start to make exile look like a viable option.

目前，外界仍不清楚巴波究竟由可可豆產業獲得多少利益。可可豆產業是象牙海岸最興盛的產業，儘管政治局勢混亂，產量卻僅略為減少。

It is unclear how much money is reaching Gbagbo from the cocoa sector, Ivory Coast's top industry whose output has been slowed only marginally by the turmoil.

隨著兩方持續堅定立場，而世界和地區強權都堅定支持烏阿塔哈，越來越不可能發生雙方妥協的選項。

A compromise is appearing increasingly unlikely as both sides continue to dig their heels in, and world and regional powers have come out so firmly in favor of Ouattara.

烏阿塔哈陣營堅持，絕不接受讓巴波保留總統一職的任何解決方案。更甚者，非洲聯盟和西非共同體這兩個區域性組織也表示，他們並不樂見出現如同肯亞或辛巴威的權力分配協定。

Ouattara's camp insists it will not accept any solution in which Gbagbo remains president. Moreover, both the African Union and the ECOWAS regional grouping say they would not favor a power-sharing deal such as those seen in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

有人建議巴波可以流亡非洲其他國家，不過，他的發言人表示，巴波不會離開象牙海岸。對巴波來說，任何與流亡有關的行動都牽涉了複雜的議題，因為他和他的同盟有可能要面對引發暴力事件的指控。

Gbagbo has been offered exile5 in Africa, but his spokesman has said he is not leaving. Any such move is complicated by the possibility Gbagbo and his allies could face prosecution for outbreaks of violence.

在本月稍早爆發流血衝突之後，烏阿塔哈的支持者對於走上街頭抗議意興闌珊。相反地，他們較希望把信心放在外交進展上。

Ouattara supporters are, for the moment, reluctant to take to the streets after a bloody crackdown earlier in the month, preferring instead to place their faith in diplomatic progress.

巴波本人曾在2000年一場具爭議性的選舉中，利用示威的方式罷黜蓋伊將軍（General Robert Guei），當時蓋伊和巴波兩人是對手。巴波當時帶了數以千計的支持者走上街頭，要求蓋伊這名軍政府領袖接受敗選。

Gbagbo himself used protests to oust General Robert Guei during a disputed election between the pair in 2000, bringing thousands of his supporters onto the streets to force the coup leader to accept defeat.

烏阿塔哈陣營日前曾號召支持者走上街頭，企圖要奪下國營電視台。然而與武裝安全部隊發生衝突，造成至少20人死亡。

Ouattara's camp had called its supporters out on the streets last week in a failed bid to seize the state broadcaster, leading to clashes with security forces in which at least 20 people were killed.

自那時開始，烏阿塔哈的支持者漸趨低調，害怕發生進一步衝突。而居住於支持烏阿塔哈社區的居民也表示，晚上會有蒙面槍手攻擊他們。

They have since largely kept a low profile for fear of further crackdowns, and residents in pro-Ouattara neighborhoods have said gunmen in masks have been attacking them by night.

巴波的總統護衛在上週的街頭衝突中大批出現，這暗示巴波目前至少還有這支重裝部隊的強力支持。

Gbagbo's presidential guard was out in force during last week's street clashes, suggesting he can at least count on solid support from the heavily armed unit.

（路透 Reuters）