策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

以巴和談苦無進展，巴勒斯坦自治政府決定在聯合國另闢戰場，

雖然阿巴斯已擬好戰略，如無法晉升會員國，至少也能確立其國家地位，

但在實質問題皆懸而未決的情況下，博取國家資格對巴勒斯坦是否仍利大於弊？

▲巴勒斯坦自治政府主席阿巴斯參加在西岸雷馬拉舉行的巴解執行委員會會議，圖攝於4月13日。（圖文／路透）

巴勒斯坦自治政府主席阿巴斯不顧美國和以色列的反對，企圖提高巴勒斯坦在聯合國中的地位，代表阿巴斯多年來推動和談未果而改採更大膽的行動。

President Mahmoud Abbas' attempt to upgrade the Palestinians' status at the United Nations, despite U.S. and Israeli opposition, signals a bolder approach by a leader after years of failed peace talks.

但巴勒斯坦人對此意見產生分岐。在約旦河西岸地區，阿巴斯所領導的法塔運動將之視為巴勒斯坦民眾多年奮戰的轉捩點；然而在加薩地區，一名來自與法塔敵對的伊斯蘭主義組織哈瑪斯的政治人物表示，這都只是空談。

But Palestinians are divided on the merits of the diplomatic offensive. In the West Bank, Abbas' Fatah movement bills it as a turning point in the Palestinian struggle, while in Gaza, a politician from rival Islamist Hamas dismissed it as hot air （1）.

以色列對此謹慎以待。巴勒斯坦有可能在9月的聯合國大會中提出入會申請，提高巴勒斯坦於聯合國組織中的地位，升級後將可加入十數個聯合國組織。

Israel is wary. The Palestinians will likely emerge from September's General Assembly （2）meeting with a U.N. status upgrade that will give them access to dozens of U.N. agencies.

阿巴斯的A計畫是要確保巴勒斯坦在聯合國有完整的會員國身分。該計畫已註定會失敗。在安理會擁有否決權的美國預料將會反對，華府認為這對其中東外交政策無益。

Abbas' Plan A -- to secure full U.N. membership for Palestine -- is destined to fail. The United States, which has veto power （3）in the Security Council （4）, is expected to oppose a move viewed in Washington as unhelpful to its Middle East diplomacy.

據巴勒斯坦官員所描述的B計畫則是要求聯合國大會將巴勒斯坦的身分由觀察員提升至非會員國。這項表決並不需要安理會同意，並將巴勒斯坦在聯合國中的地位提升至與梵帝岡相同。

Plan B, as outlined by Palestinian officials, is to ask the General Assembly to upgrade Palestine to a non-member state from its current status as an observer. That would not need Security Council approval and elevate the Palestinians' U.N. status to that of the Vatican.

部分人士認為，除非此舉是對巴勒斯坦立國策略的重新思考，不然升級為非會員國就只有象徵性意義，無法讓西岸、東耶路撒冷和加薩走廊地區的巴勒斯坦人民離獨立更進。

Some argue unless it is part of a deep rethink of Palestinian strategy, the upgrade will have little more than symbolic value and bring Palestinians no closer to independence in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip.

「這是第一步沒錯，但是若沒有接下來的步驟，那就沒有任何政治上的意義，」約旦河西岸比爾澤大學的政治科學家基亞卡門表示。

"It's a first step, but without further steps it is politically meaningless," said George Giacaman, a political scientist at Birzeit University in the West Bank.

此舉亦有風險，特別是可能會影響巴勒斯坦自治政府所仰賴的國際援助。美國國會7月時通過一項決議，針對巴勒斯坦此舉而凍結援助。

The move brings with it risks, particularly to the international aid upon which the Palestinian Authority depends. The U.S. Congress in July passed a resolution urging a suspension （5）of aid to the Palestinians over the initiative.

不過，如果巴勒斯坦的身分真的在聯合國升等，那將可以加入許多聯合國組織，可能還可以直接訴諸國際犯罪法庭，對以色列進行指控。

But it will produce some tangible results, giving the Palestinians access to U.N. agencies and potentially allowing them direct recourse to the International Criminal Court, where they could pursue cases against Israel.

「這是為巴勒斯坦的目標開啟嶄新大門。」參與提出申請決議的官員什塔雅表示。以色列總理尼坦雅胡似乎並不太擔心巴勒斯坦的這項計畫。他的幕僚表示，在討論巴勒斯坦9月的計畫時，尼坦雅胡引用了以色列過去一個電視廣告中的台詞：「令人不快，但不算糟。」

"It's about opening new doors for the cause of Palestine," said Mohammad Shtayyeh, an official involved in the bid. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not seem overly concerned by that prospect. When discussing September, his aides say he invokes a catch phrase from an old Israeli television commercial: "Unpleasant, but not terrible."

以色列方面較擔心的一點在於，9月的聯合國會員申請可能會在阿拉伯之春的影響下，激起巴勒斯坦人民的抗議。巴勒斯坦領導人已呼籲大眾參加群眾示威，聲援申請活動。示威的標語為「巴勒斯坦194」，指的是巴勒斯坦目標成為聯合國第194個會員國。

Israel seems more wary about the potential for September to trigger Palestinian protests inspired by the Arab Spring. The Palestinian leadership has called for mass protests in support of the bid under the slogan "Palestine 194", referring to their aim of becoming the 194th member of the United Nations.

阿巴斯所領導的約旦河西岸政府以及加薩地區哈瑪斯之間的和解，被認為是為9月入聯合國活動贏得大眾支持的關鍵；更廣泛地來說，對於形成任何新的巴勒斯坦發展策略都至關重大。

Reconciliation between Abbas' West Bank administration and Hamas in Gaza is seen as vital for mobilizing popular support behind the September initiative and, more broadly, any new Palestinian strategy.

巴勒斯坦在聯合國中地位升級所帶來的政治影響，可能會因為巴勒斯坦內部分裂而受到威脅。儘管今年稍早雙邊簽訂協議以終止分歧為目標，至今分歧仍持續存在。

The political impact of a status upgrade is in danger of being diminished by the split, which persists despite a deal earlier this year aimed at ending it.

雙方對於如何追求建國目標，仍持不同看法。哈瑪斯拒絕承認以色列，提議採取武力措施；而阿巴斯反對任何形式的暴力，表示和談是他屬意的方式。

The groups remain at odds over how to pursue their national cause. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel and advocates an armed strategy while Abbas opposes any form of violence and says negotiations are still his preferred path.

（路透Reuters）

1. hot air

(n.) 空談

2. Security Council

(n.) 聯合國安理會

3. veto power

(n.) 否決權

4. General Assembly

(n.) 聯合國大會

5. suspension

(n.) 暫緩、懸擱

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