策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

1929年紐約證交所股價暴跌，

西方國家在1930年代陷入經濟大蕭條，

經濟嚴重衰退使民主政治一同陪葬，

最終導致納粹政權在德國的興起。

自2008年雷曼兄弟破產以來，

金融危機持續餘波盪漾，

歐美國家至今仍為此所苦，

民眾對政經體制的不滿也正在持續累積。

▲希臘民眾走上雅典街頭，抗議政府的緊縮政策，一名參加抗議的女子在街頭怒吼，圖攝於2011年10月19日。（圖文／路透）

4年前開始的全球金融危機讓美國和歐洲陷入一場政治危機。由於無法將國內債務負擔減輕到可處理的程度，或是無法重振經濟的強勁成長，領導者面臨市場的混亂且招致民怨。

The global financial crisis that began four years ago has morphed into a political crisis for the United States and Europe. Leaders incapable of wrestling their debt loads to manageable levels or reviving strong economic growth are stoking turmoil in markets and populist unrest among the citizenry.

最糟的是，隨著這場政治動亂，可能會導致第二次全球經濟衰退，規模是1930年代以來從未有過的。這場風暴發生的速度比預期來得快，導致其加快發生的因素即是批評家所說的西方民主危機。

At worst, it could cause a second global recession （1） bringing with it political upheaval on a scale not seen since the 1930s. It has been happening at a faster pace than expected, accelerated by what these analysts have begun describing as Western democracy in crisis.

批評家在美國和歐盟看見政府可信度問題，這是由於大眾認為，政治菁英與西方金融菁英有太過緊密的連結，而這兩者的結盟造成了2007、2008年的金融亂象，以及後續的混亂場面。導致一般大眾必須承擔更多的公共債務、更高的稅率、失業率和緊縮政策。

They see a government credibility problem in the United States and European Union, stemming from a perception that the political elite （2） is too closely tied to the financial elite in the West, and their collusion caused the financial chaos of 2007 and 2008 and its messy aftermath, leaving the average citizen burdened with higher public debt, higher taxes, unemployment and austerity programs.

選民認為他們被迫為菁英階級的錯誤付出代價，打擊了大眾對政府的信任度；而當西方領袖勉力透過政府機器來處理危機卻成效不佳時，進一步也造成了政治癱瘓。

Left to pay for what voters see as the elite's mistakes, public confidence in government has been undermined, and political paralysis has set in as Western leaders struggle to pull governmental levers that are not working effectively.

哈佛一名頗具聲望的經濟歷史學家佛格森稱這是歷史性的權力轉移。佛格森在一場訪談中表示：「在5百年來的承平時期，大西洋兩岸的西方人可以說他們擁有最好的經濟體系，說他們發展出最佳的政治體制等等，但這些宣稱在我們的時代聽來日益顯得空洞。」

Niall Ferguson, a prominent economic historian now at Harvard, calls this an historic power shift. "For the better part of 500 years, it was Westerners on both sides of the Atlantic who could say that they had the best economic system, that they developed the best political system and so forth. And those claims have sounded increasingly hollow in our time," Ferguson said in an interview.

金融危機造成大眾信心崩解，進而顯示更深一層的問題，他說：「我們從政府身上所看到的，是西方建制這一更大危機的其中一環。」

The breakdown in public confidence caused by the financial crisis has revealed a deeper problem. "What we're seeing in government is part of a wider crisis of Western institutions," he said.

佛格森表示，美國的茶黨運動、占領華爾街運動和歐洲各地騷動，在在都是信任崩解之後的民粹表現。制度上，美國國會在稅率和預算問題上僵持不下，反映出信任的崩解，立法者對金融危機的原因及困境持迥異看法，彼此極化的幾乎不可能達成協議。儘管雙方都了解到，如果現狀維持不變，他們的政策將導致國家破產。

The Tea Party movement in the United States, the Occupy Wall Street movement and riots in Europe all are populist expressions of this breakdown of trust. Institutionally, it is reflected in a U.S. Congress deadlocked over taxes and spending with lawmakers so polarized by different narratives on the causes and fixes for the financial crisis that it is nearly impossible to reach decisions, even though both sides recognize that if left unchanged, their policies will bankrupt the nation, he said.

在歐洲，各國領導人跛足於一個又一個的峰會，做出局部性的決策來因應債務危機，試圖要拯救擁有17個會員國的貨幣共同體。但在這個過程中，布魯塞爾的政治菁英和資本家卻逐漸脫離民主的基礎，他們並不確定是否要以民主為代價，透過進一步的削減來保住貨幣共同體。

In Europe, leaders lurch from summit to summit, making partial decisions on fixing a debt crisis and trying to save the 17-member monetary （3）union. But in the process the political elite in Brussels and the capitals are losing touch with their democratic base, which is uncertain it wants to pay the price required for monetary union through deep cutbacks （4）.

在紐約創立對沖基金M.D. Sass的馬丁．薩斯和許多人一樣，期待選舉能夠打破目前僵局，他表示：「美國今年11月就要舉辦大選，希望能透過任何立法，解決我們的問題。」

Martin Sass, founder of the New York based hedge fund M.D. Sass, is among those pinning his hopes on the elections breaking the stalemate. "It is going to take a new election in November (in the United States) to get any legislation through to deal with our problems," Sass said.

全球最大債券基金太平洋投資管理公司首席執行長埃里恩表示，如果政治體制能再度有效運作，立法者還來得及迎頭改善，防止更嚴重的經濟衰退。

If the political system starts functioning effectively again, Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund, said it's not too late for policymakers to catch up and avert serious economic downturn.

不過，喬治華盛頓大學國際事務暨金融教授雷曼表示，單靠選舉是無法獲得保證的。要打破目前的癱瘓現象，政治領袖必須提出新的願景，重新調整金融和政治之間你儂我儂的關係，否則會破壞民眾對政治體制的信任度。

But elections alone may not prove the answer. To break the paralysis, political leaders need to offer a new vision, one that rebalances the cozy linkage between finance and politics, otherwise the credibility of the political system will remain compromised, said Scheherazade Rehman, professor of international affairs and finance at George Washington University.

她說：「我們的制度必須有所改變，金融體制是我們經濟制度的核心，它與政治體制之間有著過多的連結。兩者間的關係導致衰敗，我們必須重新思考這一關係。」

"There has to be a shifting of our institutions. The banking system is at the heart of our economic system and with it extraordinary ties to the political system. We have to rethink the close relationship that caused the breakage," she said.

針對究竟何處出錯，目前出現兩派說法。左派人士指稱，未遭受懲罰的銀行家是主要惡棍，政治菁英放任各銀行執行長追求個人利益的同時，違背信託原則和道德責任。這派說法讓大眾更加認為，政治體制與犯罪的金融菁英同流合污。

Two narratives have emerged of what went wrong. The left casts the banker as the prime villain, unpunished by the political elite who allowed CEOs to violate all the principles of fiduciary and moral responsibility in pursuit of personal gain, which fuels the perception of a political system in collusion with a criminal financial elite.

右翼的說法則指責大型政府的流氓作為，利用經濟危機擴張自己的規範權，並藉此介入自由市場。他們批評，花大筆金錢投入紓困案和社會福利計畫，只會使預算赤字暴增。

The right-wing narrative casts big government as the villain for exploiting the crisis to expand its regulatory powers that intrude on free markets, and to spend money on huge bailouts and social welfare programs that have only exploded the budget deficit.

在兩派說法中，受害者都是那些被留下來償還鉅額債務的普通老百姓，他們要承擔高失業、更多稅負並喪失經濟機會。無論是何者，政治治理與經濟生活之間的契約已然破裂。

In both narratives, the victim is the average citizen who is left paying a gigantic bill - through high unemployment, higher taxes and lost economic opportunity. Either way, the compact between political governance and economic life has broken.

芝加哥大學金融教授拉詹表示：「無論被認為有錯的是政府或是大企業，其回應就是這個體制已經被污染了，目前有太多裙帶資本主義在運作。」他曾擔任國際貨幣基金首席經濟學家。

"The political reaction, whether big government is seen at fault or big business, the reaction is that the system is tainted and there is too much crony capitalism （5） at work," said Raghuram Rajan, finance professor at the University of Chicago and former International Monetary Fund chief economist.

法國將於5月進行總統大選，而美國則將於11月舉行總統選舉。很明顯地，目前的可能性是在2012年各國大選後，政治運作障礙仍會持續存在。

There is a distinct possibility that political dysfunction will continue well after the 2012 elections - held in May for France and November for the United States.

在美國，選民可能再次回歸到分歧且兩極化的國會，立法僵局則持續進行下去。在法國，大選勝出者與德國和其他歐盟國家領導人間的關係會是關鍵因素。

In the United States, voters could return a divided and polarized Congress again, continuing the legislative standoff. In France, the election winner's relationship with Germany and fellow EU leaders will prove critical.

雖然西方民主已證明自己在面對艱困挑戰時具備改革的彈性，但1930 年代的陰影仍逐漸逼近。大眾對2012年是否能出現強而有力的政治領導者仍抱持懷疑，而這種不確定性正籠罩著市場。

Although Western democracy has demonstrated the flexibility to reform when facing severe challenges, the shadow of the 1930s looms large. This uncertainty over whether strong political leadership can emerge in 2012 is haunting markets.

（路透Reuters）

1. recession

(n.) 經濟衰退

2. elite

(n.) 精英

3. monetary

(a.) 貨幣的

4. cutback

(n.) 減少

5. crony capitalism

(n.) 裙帶資本主義

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