時常批評梅克爾的法國產業復興部長蒙特布赫，在第一時間積極的列出南歐國家的願望清單，呼籲梅克爾出手協助。

「我們共同的責任，是將歐洲推往新的方向，確保這個全世界唯一在衰退中的區域能夠再次成長。」他向法國Itele新聞台表示。

德國過去已對法國疲軟的經濟發出警告，向法國表示德國無法獨自撐起歐元區；而外交官員表示，德國正對包括法國在內的諸多成員國強力施壓，欲讓歐盟取得更多對各國國家預算政策及經濟改革的掌控。

梅克爾的幕僚在選前數天交予法國數份提案，要求歐元區國家簽署強制的「競爭力協定」，藉著歐盟法院的強制力要求各國承諾改革退休金制度、勞動市場及社福制度。

外交官表示，法國痛恨這個作法，認為這將對國家經濟主權造成更嚴重的侵害，希望其他國家加入抵制或刪改這項提案的行列。

由於梅克爾可能會先花兩個月組閣，其後才能將注意力全數轉到歐洲的議題上，本在10月下旬歐盟高峰會上能有所進展的歐盟官員們，為此特別推遲這些機會，把與歐元區未來相關的重大決議延至12月中旬。

南歐的政治人物和分析家則紛紛表態，希望梅克爾的基民黨能與大選中獲得第二多數的社民黨組成「大聯合政府」，藉由中間偏左的社民黨來軟化梅克爾的撙節政策並支持經濟刺激措施。

目前最大的擔憂，已經不是那些接受歐元區及國際金融貨幣組織財務援助的國家，因為大家心知肚明，希臘的債務重擔仍需要外界紓困，葡萄牙也會在接下來數個月尋求更多資金，因此短期內歐盟勢必會針對這些問題想出解決辦法。

且由於這些國家受到歐洲中央銀行、歐盟執委會、和國際貨幣基金這「三巨頭」的嚴密監控，而當這些國家脫離常軌時，很快就會受到這三個機構施加的壓力。

更大的擔憂，其實來自那些沒有這三巨頭監督、但潛伏著許多問題的國家，例如瀕臨瓦解的義大利政府，或者法國畏畏縮縮的經濟改革承諾會令投資人突然喪失信心。

當梅克爾勝選，而德國新興反歐元政黨「德國另類選擇黨」以些微差距飲恨、無法突破國會門檻時，義大利總理雷塔明顯的鬆了一口氣，因為這個政黨的崛起很可能激勵其他疑歐主義者，例如義大利的五星運動。

雷塔告訴義大利電視台：「反歐元政黨被阻擋在國會外（對歐洲而言）是相當重要選舉結果。這是個好徵兆，象徵德國歐洲主義仍當道。」

雷塔也希望獲得梅克爾新政府的支持，好讓他在左派紛擾的黨派糾葛及右派深陷危機中的前總理貝魯斯柯尼之間，小心翼翼的劃清界線，避開一場可能削弱其政治勢力的潛在危機。

■ 德國柏林主要車站附近，一棟建築物貼有基民黨本次大選競選廣告，利用無數一般民眾的手部照片拼貼成梅克爾的招牌手勢，並搭配競選標語「德國的未來在巧手中」（Germany's future in good hands），圖攝於2013年9月5日。（圖文／路透）

「梅克爾太過強大，她總是先吞噬她的盟友後消化不良，現在她被迫必須重新組閣；我們希望這會讓她更明智、溫和一點。」義大利參議院副發言人賈斯帕里在某次電台訪問中說道：「她的政策讓德國在歐洲國家中名列前茅，但卻會削弱其他國家。」

歐洲領導者都在等待梅克爾提出明確的計畫，看她如何替這個區域內所有銀行建立單一架構，及她為了鞏固這個貨幣聯盟願意採取多少行動。

這兩項措施很可能都需要德國納稅人為其他歐元區國家及銀行的債務承擔更多責任，但這在德國已引起相當深的疑慮。

跡象顯示，德國已準備好推動一個銀行聯盟，其所涵蓋的範圍比歐洲執委會提出的銀行聯盟來的小，讓德國能在避免更動歐盟條約情況下，自行監管境內那些易受政治牽動的儲蓄銀行。這將引發金融市場的疑慮，並減弱歐盟執委會力量。

以這個角度來看，德國接下來很可能採取更強烈的「政府間主義」，也就是直接與關鍵國家合作，而不透過歐盟執委。

然而，英國很可能抓住這個絕佳機會採取攻勢，就英國與歐盟間的關係重新協商。

卡麥隆相當重視他與梅克爾的緊密關係，而梅克爾急切的想將英國留在歐盟，不僅是為了英國的自由貿易協定和經濟競爭力，也為了透過英國來平衡法國中央集權的經濟政策所帶來的影響。

這位德國領導者正面臨一個困難的任務：既要讓英國保持在歐盟隊伍中，又不能讓它破壞歐元區的整合，或讓歐盟淪為一個各國予取予求、依其利益任意修改成員條款的組織。

「梅克爾很顯然是卡麥隆最好的協商對象，但風險在於，英國將梅克爾視為最佳談判人選的心態背後，其實高估了自己對德國的影響力，」一位倫敦的歐盟外交人員表示：「不論梅克爾多想留住英國，對她來說，歐盟的重要性優先於英國。」

梅克爾除了在德國境內享有極高聲望，許多歐盟成員國的民調也顯示，她受成員國民眾推崇。

接下來的4年，將決定她是否能自國內紛擾的政局中邁出、成為全歐陸的領導者，並擺脫幕後領導者的角色、走上檯面領導大局，與此同時也不破壞戰後與法國的平衡。（路透）

Angela Merkel has savoured her third and biggest general election victory. The poll result leaves the conservative German chancellor triumphant but still needing a coalition partner from among her centre-left rivals. The way forward for the European Union raises even trickier challenges.

From the likelihood of more debt relief for Greece, to more aid for Portugal, Spain's dangerously shaky economy, Italy's political instability and France's resistance to far-reaching reforms, the landscape is dotted with pitfalls.

Sunday's election result may have reinforced Merkel's central role in holding the continent together. But rather than leading from behind, she faces pressure to assert more pro-active leadership if the euro zone is to sustain a recovery and take hard decisions needed to complete a banking union and underpin the currency union.

British officials believe Merkel also holds the key to Prime Minister David Cameron's bid to negotiate a return of some EU powers to national capitals, before he puts continued British membership of the Union to a referendum in 2017.

France's industry minister, Arnaud Montebourg, a frequent critic of Merkel, wasted no time in laying out southern Europe's wish list and calling on the chancellor to step forward.

"Our common duty is to push Europe in a new direction, to ensure that this region - which is the only region in the world in recession - becomes a growth area once again," he told France's Itele news.

Diplomats said Germany, which has voiced alarm at France's economic weakness and told Paris it cannot carry the euro zone on its own, is pressing for more EU control over national budget policies and economic reforms in countries under EU disciplinary procedures, including France.

Days before the election, Merkel's office sent Paris proposals for euro zone states to sign binding "competitiveness contracts" committing to reforms of pensions, labour markets and welfare systems, enforceable in the European Court of Justice.

The French hate the idea, which would further erode national economic sovereignty, and are hoping other states will join in resisting it or watering it down, the diplomats said.

It may take Merkel two months to form a governing coalition before she can turn her attention fully to Europe. Brussels officials have all but written off the chances of progress at the EU summit in late October, putting back key decisions on the future of the euro zone till mid-December.

Politicians and analysts in southern Europe voiced hopes for a "grand coalition" in which the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who finished second in the poll, would soften Merkel's austerity policies and support economic stimulus measures.

The countries that have received financial assistance from the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund are no longer the biggest concern. There is a quiet acknowledgement that a solution will have to be found in time to ease Greece's debt burden again, and that Portugal may well need further funds in the coming months.

Because those countries are strictly scrutinised by the 'troika' of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the IMF, pressure can quickly be brought to bear if they veer off （1） course.

The bigger concern is countries where there is no troika oversight but where problems could easily emerge, such as the collapse of the government in Italy or investors suddenly losing confidence in France's faltering commitment to economic reforms.

Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta made clear his relief at Merkel's victory, as well as the narrow failure of Germany's new anti-euro AfD party to achieve a breakthrough, which might have spurred other eurosceptics, such as Italy's 5-Star movement.

Letta told Italian TV. "It's very important (for Europe) that the anti-euro party stayed out of parliament. I think this is a good signal, a sign of the Europeanism of Germany."

Letta will also be hoping for support from Merkel's new government to tread a careful line between restive （2） factions on the left and troubled ex-prime minister Silvio Berlusconi on the right, and avert a potentially debilitating （3） political crisis.

"Merkel is so strong that she ate her allies, got indigestion, and will now be forced to forge new alliances, and we hope this will make her more wise and malleable," Maurizio Gasparri, the deputy speaker of the Senate, said in a radio interview. "Her policies have made Germany great in Europe, but have weakened the other nations."

Europe's leaders are looking to Merkel for clarity on plans to establish a single framework for all the bloc's banks, and what steps she is willing to take to strengthen monetary union.

Both steps potentially require German taxpayers to take on more liability for other euro zone countries' debts and banks - moves regarded with deep suspicion in Germany.

The signs are that Germany is ready to push ahead with a less comprehensive form of banking union than proposed by the European Commission, avoiding changing the EU's treaty while keeping its own politically sensitive savings banks under national supervision.

This may raise concerns in financial markets and weaken the Commission

In that respect Germany may be entering into a period of more intense "inter-governmentalism" - working directly with key national capitals rather than via the EU executive.

Britain, however, may well use it as the right moment to launch its offensive to renegotiate its ties to the EU.

Cameron values his close relationship with Merkel, who is keen to keep Britain in the EU both for its attachment to free trade and economic competitiveness, and to balance out the influence of statist French economic policy.

The German leader faces a tricky task of keeping Britain onside without letting it brake closer euro zone integration or turn the EU into a free-for-all where everyone can "cherry pick （4） " terms of membership.

"Merkel is by far the best bet for Cameron, but the risk is that the British gamble on Merkel is based on an overestimation of their clout in Berlin," said a European diplomat in London. "For Merkel, the European Union comes before Britain, however much she would like to keep Britain in."

Sovereign at home, Merkel also ranks highly in opinion polls in many other EU member states.

The next four years will determine whether she can to step out of the domestic fray （5） and be a leader for all of Europe, not from behind, but from the front. And do it in such a way that it does not destabilise the post-war balance with France.（Reuters）

關鍵字詞

1.veer off（v.）偏離

2.restive（a.）喧鬧的

3.debilitating（a.）削弱力量的

4.cherry pick（v.）做出最佳選擇

5.fray（n.）紛爭