策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

過去10多年的時間裡，東南亞地區斷斷續續朝民主化的方向前進，

特別在今年夏天，許多國家也不約而同地加快政治改革步調。

究竟東南亞的民主改革模式有何特別之處？政治發展與經濟情勢又具有何種的關聯性？

▲民運人士翁山蘇姬對於緬甸政府宣布赦免政治犯感到欣慰，她表示12日約莫有1百名政治犯獲得釋放，圖為獲釋者12日走出仰光的音山監獄。（圖文／路透）

緬甸政府在最近幾週謹慎地放寬嚴格的管制，成為各界焦點所在，但這只是今年夏天以來東南亞最新一起的政治變革。雖然這是東南亞邁向政治開放的趨勢，但這些改變大多是透過政府或選舉而完成。

Myanmar's cautious relaxation of strict government control has grabbed the spotlight in recent weeks, but it's only the latest act in a summer of political change in Southeast Asia. Although part of a trend toward more political openness in the region, the changes have been driven mostly by governments or through elections.

新加坡長期執政的人民行動黨在今年5月大選重新奪回權力，但由於星國民眾對物價上漲和移民問題憤怒不已，加上感覺政府不具回應性，因此人民行動黨在今年的得票率創歷史新低。總理李顯龍表示，這次大選是一個轉折點，改變了政治版圖。

Singapore's long-ruling People's Action Party returned to power in May elections but anger over surging prices and immigration, and a feeling that the government was not responsive, sank its share of the vote to a record low. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the election was a watershed and had altered the political landscape.

在馬來西亞，總理納吉已廢除2項影響甚廣的安全法，同時也解除對媒體的箝制。馬國政府之所以大動作進行改革，是因為7月吉隆坡一場要求政府施政更有品質的大型遊行中，警方的行動引起激烈批評。

In Malaysia, Prime Minister Najib Razak has repealed （1）two sweeping security laws and lifted curbs on the media. The moves came after sharp criticism of police action against a huge rally in the capital Kuala Lumpur in July for better governance.

在泰國，前總理戴克辛的政黨在國會大選中擊敗執政黨，這對去年與軍隊發生血腥衝突的紅衫軍支持者來說是一大勝利。

And in Thailand, the party of deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra ousted the ruling party in parliamentary elections, a victory for his red-shirted supporters involved in bloody clashes with the military last year.

新加坡國立大學政治學副教授戴維森表示：「以一種簡單的方式來說，這是一波朝民主、朝政治自由邁進的運動，只是各國速度不同，在收穫同時亦有所挫折。」

"In a simplistic way, it is a movement towards democracy, towards political liberalisation, just at different paces with gains but also with setbacks," says Jaime Davidson, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

「這成為東南亞地區，保守菁英彼此進行爭奪，無論是政界、經濟界及軍方的菁英，都想在進展的路途上取得控制權。」

"This tussle, this back and forth between conservative elites in the region, whether they be policy elites, economic elites or military elites, trying to rein in moves towards this process. "

戴維森表示，儘管整體趨勢如此，很少證據顯示這些事件彼此互相影響。「這個進程已進行多年，因此不是出於巧合，但也絕不是短期內的骨牌效應。」

Davidson said despite the overall trend, there was little evidence that the events were inter-dependent. "It (the process) has been over years. So it's not coincidental, but it's certainly not domino-related in the short-term."

大約一個世代之前，東南亞大部分地區都是由獨裁政權或將軍所統治。菲律賓強人馬可仕和印尼總統蘇哈托分別在1986年和1998年被罷黜，為東南亞地區帶來了一陣陣的改變風潮。

Just a generation ago, much of Southeast Asia was ruled by autocrats （2）or generals. The 1986 ouster of strongman Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and President Suharto in Indonesia in 1998 has brought in change which has spread, in fits and starts, across the region.

新加坡和馬來西亞所實施的控制式民主已變得更加自由；泰國原本由軍隊所支持的政權也轉變成民選政府；印尼則被視為東南亞地區最多元的國家。

Controlled democracies in Singapore and Malaysia are now more liberal, military-backed regimes have given way to elected governments in Thailand and Indonesia is now seen as the most pluralistic state in the region.

分析師指出，汶萊仍是遭到嚴格管制的王國；而越南和其他較小的中南半島國家要達到真正民主仍有很長的路要走。不過，東南亞地區的民主趨勢仍清晰可辨。

Brunei remains a tightly-run kingdom while Vietnam and the smaller Indochina states have a long way to go, but still, there is a perceptible trend, analyst say.

東南亞之夏的局外人是緬甸。今年4月，緬甸軍政府解散，接續執政的是由軍方支持的平民政府。自那時起，政府釋放數百名政治犯、向諾貝爾和平獎得主翁山蘇姬示好、呼籲與種族反抗團體對話，同時也延遲一項爭議不斷的中國大壩建築工事。

The outlier （3）in this Southeast Asian summer has been Myanmar. After the junta （4）was dissolved in April and an army-backed but civilian government took power, the regime has freed hundreds of political prisoners, made overtures to Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, called for dialogue with ethnic rebels and postponed construction of a controversial Chinese dam.

新加坡國際事務院主席戴尚志表示，但緬甸的改變似乎都是由政府所推動，而不是像在新加坡、馬來西亞和泰國一樣是民心所趨。

But the changes appear to have been driven by the government, rather than any popular sentiment, as could be said about Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, says Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

「源自基層的政策有其重要性，過去被我們稱作獨裁或菁英政治的民主類型，現在必須更體認到基層的要素。」他說：「問題在於，在這3個國家中，那些不屬於菁英階層的人是否能夠使用這些情緒來反對已建立許久的菁英階層。」

"Ground up policies do matter, democracies which we called autocratic or elite before are having to recognise the ground elements much more," he said. "The question is whether people outside those elites can use those sentiments against the established elites in all three countries."

雖然緬甸的例子一度看起來像是反軍政府革命的開花結果，但促使眼前發生改革的因素，與目前中東所發生的革命風潮完全不同。

And although Myanmar was at one time seen as ripe for a revolution against the junta, there is no sense that what happened in the Middle East is in any way a trigger for the current reforms.

國際危機團體東南亞計畫執行長戴拉－賈柯馬表示：「雖說從今年7月起，緬甸總統似乎已處理掉部分的內部政治爭議，而改革也以驚人的速度在進行，但政府仍是目前改革進程的操控者，一切都在謹慎、有條理的過程中進行。」

"Right now it's a very managed process that is deliberate and methodical, although it has been happening at a somewhat surprising speed since mid-July when the president appears to have sorted out some internal political squabbles （5）," said Della-Giacoma, Southeast Asia Project Director for the International Crisis Group.

「推動政府改革議程的，並非是對中東近日來革命風潮的懼怕，而是擔心緬甸的發展遠遠落後它國。20多年的孤立已經讓它在繁榮和財富上落後其東南亞地區鄰國，現在他們想要迎頭趕上。」

"The reform agenda of the government is not being driven by a fear of what's happening in the Middle East, but more by a concern of Myanmar having been left behind. Twenty years or more of isolation have left it trailing its Southeast Asian neighbours in terms of prosperity and wealth and now they want to catch up."

（路透Reuters）

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