一面歡呼、吹著響亮的號角，一面舞著旗子，上萬名聚集曼谷的示威群眾，15日遊行前往泰國總理危機處理小組所在的軍事基地，向總理施壓，要求要舉行大選。

Cheering, blaring horns and waving flags, thousands of protesters started to move on Monday toward a military base in Bangkok where the premier has his crisis headquarters, putting pressure on him to call elections.

前總理戴克辛的支持群眾紅衫軍，15日中午向政府下了最後通牒，要求解散國會、舉辦大選，不然泰國政府就等著面對大規模的街頭示威活動。

The red-shirted supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra gave the government an ultimatum to dissolve 1 parliament and call elections by midday on Monday or face mass street demonstrations.

背後有強大軍隊和菁英階級支持的泰國總理艾比希，斷然拒絕示威群眾要求，此舉強化了他面對示威將獲得勝利的預測。

Backed by the powerful military and establishment elite, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva flatly refused, reinforcing speculation he will prevail in the showdown.

「每個人都同意，我們不能這樣做。」艾比希在15日一場全國現場廣播中表示。

“Everyone agrees that we cannot do it,” Abhisit said in a live national broadcast Monday morning.

「這並不代表說，我們不傾聽包括示威群眾在內民眾的心聲。只是我們希望國家在法治的情形下前進，不只是今天，未來也是。」

“It’s not that we will not listen to the people, including the protesters. We want to see the country moving forward within the rule of law not just for today but also for the future.”

從12日開始集結的示威者，到14日已經號召超過15萬人，但16日已有部分參與者因遲遲不能達到目的，而返回居住地。

The protests, which began on Friday, reached more than 150,000 people on Sunday but have been peaceful and orderly.

儘管泰國政局緊張情勢升高，外國資金還是持續流入泰國股市，由於投資者希望從東南亞新興經濟的快速復興中尋求利潤，過去3週來已有達8.12億美元（約新台幣258億元）之多的外資進場。

Despite the increase in political tension, foreign funds have been flowing into Thailand’s stock market — to the tune of $812 million over the past three weeks — as investors seek to benefit from a swift rebound in Southeast Asia’s emerging economies.

近來外資持續買進有3個原因：第一，泰國資產交易進行的折扣幅度較大；第二，儘管時有動亂發生，泰國經濟已從全國經濟衰退下逐步重建；第三，大眾預期艾比希能安然渡過示威。

Recent foreign buying was based on three factors: Thai assets are already trading at a substantial risk discount, the economy has rebounded well from the global downturn despite bouts of unrest; and, Abhisit is widely expected to survive the protests.

示威領袖希望展現強有力的非暴力支持，藉以能夠對艾比希施壓，要求舉辦大選，預計若大選順利舉行，戴克辛的同盟能順利勝選。示威群眾同時也想藉此拉攏艾比希聯合政府中的游離伙伴。

Protest leaders hope a powerful display of non-violent support will pressure Abhisit into call an election that Thaksin’s allies would be well placed to win. They also want to convince wavering partners in his coalition 2 to break away.

泰國軍方發言人杉沈（Sansern Kaewkamnerd）指出，示威群眾包圍的軍事基地部署了大約3千名士兵，直昇機也作好疏散的準備。基地外圍，成排士兵守備在築好拒馬和刺網的閘門外。

About 3,000 soldiers were deployed at the base and helicopters were ready for evacuation, said army spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd. Soldiers lined up behind barricaded and barb-wired fences and gates.

這場示威加深了表面上棘手的政治危機，使穿著黃衫、支持艾比希的保皇派、都市菁英和軍隊，與主要來自鄉村、穿著紅衣，聲稱公民權被剝奪的戴克辛支持者出現對立。

The protest deepens a seemingly intractable political crisis pitting the military, urban elite and royalists 3 — who wear yellow at protests and back Abhisit — against mainly rural Thaksin supporters who wear red and say they are disenfranchised.

大多數的示威群眾是自泰國較貧窮鄉村的省份，擠在卡車、汽車，甚至是河船中，千里跋涉而來，這說明了儘管2006年政變後戴克辛被免職、被定貪污罪並自發流亡，但影響力仍舊存在至今。

Most of the protesters travelled from Thailand’s poor, rural provinces, piling into pick-up trucks, cars and even river boats, illustrating Thaksin’s influence despite his removal in a 2006 coup, a graft conviction and self-imposed exile.

雖然外國投資者期待艾比希在與紅衫軍一決雌雄之時能夠勝利，泰國未來政局仍隱約出現部分風險。

Although foreign investors expect Abhisit to prevail in the “red shirt” showdown, some risks loom ahead.

在勢必會於明年年底前舉辦的下次大選中，如同贏得自2001年之後每次民調一般，戴克辛的同盟很有可能會再次勝選。軍隊和都會菁英階級則可能會不擇手段來推翻選舉結果，最有可能的手法是如同2006年一般進行政變，或是像2008年引起暴亂的那次干預，利用司法介入的方式。

Thaksin’s allies are likely to win the next election which must be called by the end of next year, just as they have won every poll held since 2001. The military and urban elite could seek to overturn that result, possibly with a coup, as in 2006, or a judicial intervention, as in 2008, triggering unrest.

紅衫軍示威群眾表示，出生於英國、在牛津受教育的艾比希，取得政權的方式並不合法；在法庭解散由戴克辛同盟政黨所組成的聯合政府後，艾比希領導一個由軍隊勢力主導拼湊而成的聯合政府。

The “red shirt” protesters say the British-born, Oxford-educated Abhisit came to power illegitimately, heading a coalition the military cobbled together after courts dissolved a pro-Thaksin party that led the previous coalition government.

增添紅衫軍憤怒的是，泰國最高法院上個月以貪污為由，凍結了戴克辛的14億美元（約新台幣445億元）的資產。

Adding to their anger, Thailand’s top court seized $1.4 billion of Thaksin’s assets last month, saying it was accrued through abuse of power.

艾比希堅持他所領導的政府是按照合法程序掌權的。當他所屬的政黨於2007年選舉中贏得第2高票後，他在國會贏得多數支持。

Abhisit insists his government came to power 4 legitimately. While his party came in second in the last election in 2007, he won the support of the majority in parliament.

2008年時，泰國深受政治動亂之苦，反對前總理戴克辛陣營的黃衫軍佔領總理府長達3個月，接著還封鎖了曼谷國際機場，直到法庭解散政府為止。

Thailand was plagued by political upheaval in 2008, when yellow-shirted protesters who opposed Thaksin’s allies in the previous government occupied the prime minister’s office for three months and then blockaded Bangkok’s international airport until a court ousted the government.

去年4月，戴克辛支持者紅衫軍所發動的示威，引發了泰國17年來最嚴重的街頭暴力事件。近幾個月來，紅衫軍一再強調非暴力，而戴克辛的演說比起去年也較不具煽動性；去年他一再提及「革命」。

Last April, protests by Thaksin supporters triggered 5 Thailand’s worst street violence in 17 years. In recent months, they have emphasized non-violence — and Thaksin’s rhetoric is less incendiary than last year when he spoke of a “revolution.”

（路透Reuters）

關鍵字詞

1.dissolve

(v.) 解散(國會)

2.coalition

(n.) 聯合政府

3.royalist

(n.) 保皇派

4.come to power

(v.) 掌權、上台

5.trigger

(v.) 引發

目前聚集曼谷街頭的反政府示威者面臨了一個棘手問題：是要繼續強調和平示威的非暴力策略，而冒著活動失去動力的風險；還是該嘗試更激烈的手法，但可能重蹈去年4月暴動的覆轍，因而敗壞他們的名聲？去年4月的暴動，是泰國17年來最嚴重的街頭暴力事件。

泰國總理艾比希仍舊在高階軍官和菁英階級間享有高度支持，他在15日時斷然拒絕示威群眾解散國會並重新舉行大選的要求。示威群眾因而重回他們在曼谷街頭的陣地。

示威群眾16日並沒有前往任何地點遊行，反倒發想出一個令人驚訝的象徵性舉動：每一名參與示威的民眾被要求捐出10㏄的血，準備用來潑灑在總理府。

「在領導者策畫出更具體的策略前，這看起來像是一個象徵性的舉動，以讓示威群眾有些事可以期待。」獨立智庫「暹邏情報單位」的執行長卡恩（Karn Yuenyong）表示。

然而，這個運動的組成人員大多數為夜裡和衣就地而眠，日間則在烈日下步行示威的鄉村民眾，從這個角度來看，缺乏一個更明確的策略，可能會導致人們情緒開始降溫。

「短期來看，政府有其優勢，因為只要他們確認示威群眾的行動沒有造成任何傷亡，就能安然度過這次危機。」卡恩表示。

由於雙方爭取的是以公眾意向為依歸的執政合法性，這表示兩方面都必須在抗爭最前線呈現非暴力的形象。不論是哪一方，只要被發現使用暴力，就等於先冒著失去大眾支持的風險。

然而，分析師警告，儘管雙方陣營瀰漫著訴求非暴力的聲音，目前示威群眾的本質仍相當有秩序，但曼谷軍事基地15日出現的手榴彈攻擊，還是凸顯了目前情況的多變性。

卡恩表示，雙方陣營中都有支持者想要煽動暴力，藉以改變目前的政治均衡。

「有許多目標各異的玩家參與其中。」卡恩表示。「當有些人希望推動長期改革時，另一些可能希望添加一些催化劑，讓示威快些結束。」

（路透）

策劃、編譯■謝雯伃

集結在泰國曼谷街頭的反政府紅衫軍已逐漸散去。

軍方以及權勢集團大力支持的政府明顯佔上風，

地位並未受太大打擊，

而示威群眾數日來的激情，

則如參與嘉年華會般化為幻夢。

是該持續非暴力路線？

還是放手一搏，以激烈手段達成目的？

成為紅衫軍的兩難。

歡迎對立報的任何批評指教。請由立報首頁點選「討論區」，或點選 討論區