策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

部分猶太人原以為美國最終會默認以色列在西岸所興建的屯墾區，

但歐巴馬19日的中東外交政策演說，

卻打擊了他們這一長久以來的認知。

對以色列政府來說，歐巴馬的提議為何讓他們感到不安？

確立1967年以前的邊界為和平藍圖基調，

又是否真能解決國土分配問題？

■站在同一陣線以色列左派人士與巴勒斯坦人於5月27日在東耶路撒冷的阿斯拉穆德發起抗議，反對新建猶太屯墾區，圖為屯墾區的民眾在陽台上揮搖國旗，向抗議民眾叫囂。（圖文／路透）

美國在和平的調停上，希望先解決邊界問題，再解決其他核心爭議，如耶路撒冷的地位和巴勒斯坦難民未來的處置等。以色列在1967年的戰爭中佔領西岸，基於「無法防守」的理由，以色列總理尼坦雅胡拒絕回到戰爭前的邊界，而以色列本身沒有其他替代方案。

U.S. peace mediation that seeks to set borders before other core disputes -- such as Jerusalem's status and the future of Palestinian refugees -- are tackled. For while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused any return to the "indefensible" lines held before the West Bank's occupation in the 1967 war, the Israelis themselves have no ready alternative to hand.

雖然以色列希望維持美國及巴勒斯坦所達成的協議，要求用「相互同意交換」的土地來換取西案的屯墾區，但這卻遠不足以滿足尼坦雅胡對防禦的要求。

While Israel's hope of keeping swathes of its West Bank settlements （1）under an accord would appear to have been met by U.S. and Palestinian calls for "mutually agreed swaps （2）" of land, this falls far short of satisfying Netanyahu's defence doctrine.

以色列戰略事務部部長庫博瓦沙表示：「難道可以突然提出某種邊界圖，然後現在馬上就實施的嗎？不可能。」他認為，中東情勢動盪不安，以及巴勒斯坦政體不明，均造成許多模糊危險，在這樣的情況下，邊界規畫是不可能實現的。巴勒斯坦政體更動在面對尼坦雅胡所提出的和平條件前一直裹足不前，因以國所提出條件中包括了認可以色列為一猶太國。

"Is there some kind of borders chart that can be whipped out and presented now? No," said Yosef Kuperwasser, who serves as director-general of Israel's Strategic Affairs Ministry. Such planning, he argued, is impossible given the nebulous menaces of a Middle East in upheaval and of the Palestinian polity, which has balked at Netanyahu's peacemaking （3） terms that include recognition of Israel as a Jewish state.

一旦美國軍隊離開伊拉克，伊拉克可能會與伊朗結盟，然後把國內坦克開向以色列；約旦所提供的中立位置可能會失守，特別是在埃及與突尼西亞革命熱潮延燒到約旦首都安曼之後更是如此。約旦河西岸地區可能會成為巴勒斯坦軍事份子的跳板；而阿拉伯地區的軍隊也會支持抵抗以色列，此外黎巴嫩真主黨以及哈瑪斯游擊隊則會分別由北、南側夾攻以色列。

Once U.S. forces leave Iraq, it could close ranks with Iran and send tanks toward Israel; the buffer offered by Jordan might not hold, especially if revolutions seen in Egypt and Tunisia reach Amman; the West Bank would risk becoming a springboard for Palestinian militants, bolstered by Arab armies as well as the Hezbollah and Hamas guerrillas to Israel's north and south.

更迫在眉睫的是，如果巴勒斯坦從西岸高地對下方城市發射火箭炮和迫擊炮的話，以色列的商業命脈特拉維夫和鄰近的國際大門班固里昂機場，都會為之癱瘓。

More immediately, Israel's commercial hub of Tel Aviv and nearby Ben-Gurion Airport, its international gateway, could be paralysed should Palestinian rocket and mortar crews have the run of the West Bank highlands overlooking them.

「以色列不能僅看2011年的短期現況。」前以色列駐聯合國大使葛德表示，日前尼坦雅胡訪美，他以顧問身分隨行。「沒有人可以保證，以色列在5年內還能掌控東邊的領土。」

"Israel cannot base itself on a snapshot of reality in 2011," said Dore Gold, a former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations who accompanied Netanyahu to Washington as a consultant. "No one can guarantee, for Israel, which regimes to the east will be in power in five years' time."

究竟需要多少土地才能達到以色列所想要的國家安全呢？葛德與庫博瓦沙，還有其他以國政府官員一樣，並不願正面以數據回應。不過，他表示，以色列對如何補償巴勒斯坦一事感到為難。「那表示必須挖去以色列現有的一部分給巴勒斯坦，包括道路、合作農場和軍事基地。」他說。

How much might that require? Gold, like Kupperwasser and other officials, would not be drawn on figures. But he said Israel would be hard put to compensate the Palestinians. "You would have to carve out from the living flesh of Israel -- roads, kibbutzim, military bases," he said.

在尼坦雅胡第一任總理任期間，擔任軍事顧問的中間偏左和平倡議人士艾瑞里表示，以色列在當時的協調地圖中，要求約旦河西岸被佔領地區40％的土地。在尼坦雅胡最新一次公開對此議題的發言中，以色列在約旦河西岸所要求的土地降到了15％到20％，認為該比例可讓以軍在約旦河谷地進行最低限度戍守，艾瑞里說。

Shaul Arieli, a centre-left peace activist who in the late 1990s served as a military consultant under first-term premier Netanyahu, said Israeli negotiators' maps then called for a 40 percent West Bank annexation （4）. That has likely been pared down to between 15 percent and 20 percent due to Netanyahu's current openness to keeping a minimal Israeli military garrison in the Jordan Valley, Shaul Arieli said

雖說大多數人對該地區局勢詭譎多變並無異議，然而多名專家質疑尼坦雅胡的觀點。專家表示，尼坦雅胡所言低估了以色列的軍事實力，並小覷了巴勒斯坦在人口統計及國際合法性上所造成的傷害。

Though few dispute the region's volatility, Netanyahu's views are challenged by experts who say they play down Israel's military primacy and the corrosion caused to its demographics （5） and international legitimacy by remaining mired over Palestine.

「任何因政治協商而出現的以色列共和國邊界，就是以色列國防軍有能力防守的界線。」目前與立場中立的反對派前進黨結盟的前軍方首長哈魯茲表示。「當然我們並不排除要做好讓坦克列陣於邊境的準備，不過近年來所發動的戰爭都不太是在地面領土上進行，而是在領空中進行。」他告訴以色列電視台。

"Any border the political echelon sets as the State of Israel's border is a border that the Israel Defence Forces would be capable of defending," said Dan Halutz, a former military chief now aligned with the centrist opposition party Kadima. "Of course I wouldn't rule out that we must prepare for the possibility of tanks being lined up on the border, but the kind of wars being waged in recent years do not have a territorial dimension as much as an aerial one," he told Israeli television.

「很明顯地，以色列其實可以輕鬆承受放棄約旦河西岸地區的後果。」軍事歷史學家范克瑞福德在《猶太前進日報》中寫道。「從戰略的角度來看，這麼做的風險微乎其微。重要的是，要維持西岸地區屯墾所面對的人口、社會、文化和政治挑戰。」

"It is crystal-clear that Israel can easily afford to give up the West Bank," military historian Martin van Creveld wrote in the Jewish Daily Forward. "Strategically speaking, the risk of doing so is negligible. What is not negligible is the demographic, social, cultural and political challenge" of maintaining the West Bank occupation.

（路透Reuters）

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