策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃

阿拉伯之春帶動的民主化浪潮已沖垮數個獨裁政權，

政治強人接連下台，中東地區的權力結構也悄然發生改變。

目前，土耳其勢力正逐步崛起，

甚至有人語帶誇張的表示這是「鄂圖曼帝國的復興」，

但重點在於，土耳其為何會成為中東地區強權？

又是否堪為其他阿拉伯國家追求政治轉型的楷模？

▲土耳其總理艾爾段（左）拜訪埃及，於13日前往位在開羅的前總統薩達特墓園及無名戰士紀念碑，陪同在側的是埃及陸軍司令官羅溫尼（Hassan al-Roweny）。（圖文／路透）

因為對以色列發表強硬言論，土耳其總理艾爾段贏得許多阿拉伯人的心。但國內外皆有質疑聲浪，認為他的動機是想要替土耳其博得在阿拉伯世界的領導地位，就像鄂圖曼土耳其帝國將阿拉伯世界掌控在手中一樣。

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has captivated many Arabs with his tough talk against Israel, but voices at home and abroad question his drive to carve out a leadership role for Turkey in an Arab world once under the Ottoman imperial （1）thumb.

「加薩地區一名哭泣的巴勒斯坦兒童，會讓安卡拉一名母親柔腸寸斷。」艾爾段日前在開羅對阿拉伯國家聯盟演說時表示。他精心算計的修辭語言，取悅了阿拉伯大眾。

"A Palestinian child crying in Gaza wrenches a mother's heart in Ankara," Erdogan told the Arab League in Cairo on Tuesday, using language calculated to delight Arab masses.

他的言談中一直傳遞出土耳其人和阿拉伯人分享著相同情緒，這在以前的土耳其是從未發生過的。土耳其過去一直與美國軍事同盟友好，積極尋求加入歐盟，且對週邊「落後的」中東地區鄰居輕蔑以對。

His message of how Turks and Arabs twang to the same emotions would have seemed alien to a previous Turkey, friendly with its U.S. military ally, keen to join the European Union and disdainful of a "backward" Middle East on its doorstep.

許多年來，所謂的土耳其模式一直讓阿拉伯人民心生嚮往，雖然沒有一個阿拉伯國家仿效其世俗化政治體制、伊斯蘭主義領導和經濟成功。

The so-called Turkish model has fascinated Arabs for several years, although no Arab country has emulated its mix of secular democracy, Islamist leadership and economic success.

日前艾爾段抵達開羅機場，數千名埃及人於現場歡迎。2009年，艾爾段因為與以色列總統裴瑞斯在達佛斯舉行的世界經濟論壇上交鋒，憤而離席。此後多次與以色列出現爭論。許多阿拉伯人自此開始崇拜他。

Thousands of Egyptians cheered him after he landed at Cairo airport on Monday. Many Arabs admire him for his repeated tangles with Israel since he angrily left a platform he had shared in Davos with Israeli President Shimon Peres in 2009.

「可憐的阿拉伯人！他們怎麼知道這個向他們推銷民主的人，事實上只把民主當成一種工具，一個達成自我目標的方式，一旦達成目標，這個工具就會被拋棄了呢？」阿卡育雷克在《共和國報》上寫道，他稱艾爾段為「鄂圖曼共和國的宰相」。

"Poor Arabs! How should they know the guy who's advising them on democracy actually only sees it as a vehicle, a means of achieving his own goals, and getting off the vehicle once this has been done?" wrote Cuneyt Arcayurek in Cumhuriyet, calling Erdogan the "Grand Vizier of the Ottoman Republic."

皮尤研究中心今年3月到4月進行的調查顯示，78％的埃及人信賴艾爾段；同樣地，在約旦和黎巴嫩，信任他的人各有72％和64％。而有將近95％的以色列人持相反態度。

A Pew Research Center survey conducted in March-April showed that 78 percent of Egyptians had confidence in him, along with 72 percent of Jordanians and 64 percent of Lebanese. Nearly 95 percent of Israelis took the opposite view.

調查是在這名土耳其領導人驅逐以色列大使之前所進行的。去年，一支土耳其援助船隊企圖衝破以色列在加薩走廊的封鎖線，遭以色列突襲隊攔阻，結果造成9名土耳其人死亡。以色列堅決不願道歉，土耳其遂於今年9月2日驅逐以國大使。

And that was before the Turkish leader expelled the Israeli ambassador last week after Israel refused to apologize for last year's killing of nine Turks by Israeli commandos （2）who halted an aid ship trying to break an Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip.

在阿拉伯國家聯盟中，這樣的好鬥個性已久未出現於阿拉伯國家聯盟之中。被罷黜的埃及前總統穆巴拉克在過去30年的領導下，阿拉伯國家聯盟從未與以色列發生衝突，這是因為穆巴拉克堅守開羅當局與以色列這個猶太國家的和平協議。

Such combativeness has long been absent from the Arab League, which never confronted Israel during President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule, when the ousted Egyptian leader was bent on preserving Cairo's peace treaty with the Jewish state.

「有些人說，土耳其的野心是想要回到古鄂圖曼帝國一樣的角色，不過，在沙烏地阿拉伯，大眾並不這樣想。」沙烏地阿拉伯分析師達克希爾表示。

"Some people talk about Turkey having the ambition of going back to the old Ottoman role, but in Saudi Arabia the majority do not think this way," said Saudi analyst Khalid al-Dakhil.

「目前，阿拉伯國家軟弱不堪，當然無可避免會讓土耳其拿下這個地區的領導地位。」他說。他並表示，阿拉伯國家還希望土耳其能與什葉派掌權的伊朗互相制衡。

"At this point, Arab states are weak, so you can't avoid Turkey having this leading role in the region," he said, adding that Arab states wanted Turkey to counterbalance Shi'ite Iran.

「伊朗扮演的是教派領導人的角色，藉由教派間的聯繫在阿拉伯地區尋求同盟。不過，土耳其是個世俗化國家，國內以遜尼派為大宗。」達克希爾說。

"Iran is playing a sectarian （3）role, making its alliances in the region on the basis of sectarian affiliation. But Turkey is a secular state with a Sunni majority," Dakhil said.

艾爾段過去採取的政策是與土耳其鄰國「零糾紛」，但隨著其與以色列間的仇恨情緒越演越烈，零糾紛政策已宣告破裂。此外，阿拉伯世界動亂頻傳，也讓安卡拉當局被迫採取部分尷尬的政策調整。

Erdogan's old policy of "zero problems" with Turkey's neighbors has crumbled in the rancor with Israel and the Arab upheavals that have forced some awkward adjustments for Ankara.

因為與利比亞政府簽署了150億美元的合約，土耳其先前反對西方介入利比亞國內衝突，也遲遲不肯承認終結格達費42年統治的過渡政府。現在為了要保護土耳其經濟利益，艾爾段必須要討好利比亞新任統治者。

Turkey opposed Western intervention in Libya, where it had contracts worth $15 billion, and was slow to recognize those who ended Muammar Gaddafi's 42 years in power. Now Erdogan must woo Libya's new rulers to protect Turkish economic interests.

對部分世俗主義評論家而言，艾爾段的外交政策在模擬兩可和不穩定當中擺盪。「昨天，利比亞的格達費還是一名同盟，現在，他卻成了敵人。敘利亞人是我們的兄弟，不過，我們可能要和美國一起對付他。」阿卡波在《共和國報》上寫道。

For some of his secularist Turkish critics, Erdogan's foreign policy is a shambles of ambiguity and instability. "Yesterday Libya's Gaddafi was an ally, now he's an enemy. Syrians are our brothers, but then again we may plan something against them with the U.S.," wrote Oktay Akbal in Cumhuriyet.

敘利亞目前仍持續發生流血衝突，但比起阿拉伯國家聯盟的沉默態度，部分敘利亞民眾更偏愛艾爾段的立場。「艾爾段已經變成一個阿拉伯英雄。」札赫表示。這名敘利亞人來自反阿薩德勢力溫床荷姆斯市。他在阿拉伯國家聯盟總部外為艾爾段這名土耳其領導人歡呼。

The bloodshed （4）in Syria goes on, but some Syrians prefer Erdogan's stance to the Arab League's muted approach. "Erdogan has turned into an Arab hero," said Samer Zaher, a Syrian from Homs, a hotbed （5）of anti-Assad sentiment, who was cheering the Turkish leader outside the League's headquarters.

「他要求阿薩德退位，並稱阿薩德是失去正當性的總統，我們還沒找到一位像他這麼強而有力的領袖。」

"We have not found a leader as powerful as him asking Assad to leave and calling him an illegitimate president."

（路透Reuters）

1. imperial

(adj.) 帝國的

2. commando

(n.) 突擊隊

3. sectarian

(adj.) 教派的、派別的

4. bloodshed

(n.) 流血傷亡

5. hotbed

(n.) 溫床

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